Shop Rag: 2024 Arlington Supercross Research
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Shop Rag is part of the We Went Fast Garage, a member’s only premium content zone. This is our research work to get you ready for this weekend’s race in Arlington, Texas, Round 7 of the Monster Energy Supercross Championship.
Welcome back to Jerry’s World!
Dallas is one of the original four markets of the Monster Energy Supercross, along with Houston, Daytona and LA.
Its history goes back to Feb. 28-March 1, 1975 when Texas Stadium hosted Supercross over two nights. Can-Am’s Jimmy Ellis won the 4 moto overall with 1-1-1-2 scores.
In 2024, we’re back in AT&T Stadium for the 17th time (46th time racing in the Dallas area). This is the 10th time Dallas has hosted round 7 of the series.
Much more info and history at the…
All-Time Cooper Webb
Even though Dallas is one of the original and longest running markets in Supercross history–where all the greats, from McGrath to Carmichael to Reed and Tomac won multiple races, and all have main event start numbers in the double digits–in 2023, Cooper Webb became its all-time leader (5) within a five year period. And he did it in just 9 starts.
Webb’s 5 wins in 9 starts puts him ahead of Chad Reed’s 4 wins in 16 starts. All six of Webb’s podiums came on a KTM.
- 2019: Webb was 2nd in the title hunt coming into Arlington, 1 point behind Roczen. Webb had 5-10-8 scores early that season
- Round 7 of the series: Webb’s 3rd start in Arlington, he tracks down Ken Roczen, makes an aggressive move in the final corner and wins by .028, the closest finish in Supercross history.
- Notable: Cooper Webb has won 3 of the top 6 closest races over Ken Roczen.
Tight Supercross Win Margins
- 2021: The ‘residency year’ of racing. Arlington hosts rounds 10-12 and Webb wins them all. Coming into the Arlington series, he was 2nd in the championship, 2 points behind Ken Roczen. Webb’s worst finishes were 9-4-4 up to that point.
- Round 10: Webb leads all 28 laps to beat Justin Barcia by over 4 seconds
- Round 11: Webb leads all 24 laps to beat Eli Tomac by 4.6 seconds
- Round 12: Webb starts behind Ken Roczen and makes his move on lap 20 of 26. He wins by 1.3 seconds.
- Webb left Arlington with a 15 point lead over Roczen.
- 2023: Webb entered Arlington 7 points behind Tomac and left just 2 points behind.
- Round 7: A Triple Crown, Webb goes 5-2-1 and because of his better final moto finish, beats Chase Sexton in tiebreak rules (they both had 8 finish points).
- 2024: A frustrating 7th in Glendale leaves Webb 10 points out of the championship lead but he’s heading into races where he’s been strong.
Roczen Trending
Ken Roczen is averaging exactly a 6th place finish this season, which is similar to the 5.8 he averaged after 6 rounds in 2023.
The difference, however, is in how he’s trending: He went 8-4-11 leading into round 7 in Arlington 2023.
In 2024, he’s gone 7-3-1 in the races leading into round 7 at Arlington. And his win in Glendale was convincing with an exclamation point(!)
- He led both his heat and the main from start to finish.
- Of the fastest 13 laps in the main, 8 of them were Roczen’s. More analysis in “What Really Happened at Glendale?”
- He set the fastest 6 laps in his heat. He set the fastest 3 heat laps combining the two heats (Anderson had the 4th fastest when combined). His slowest lap was faster than 36 of the 40 riders that raced in either heat!
- Of the 1,402 laps ridden by a 450 all day (qualifying, heat, lcq, and main), Ken Roczen set 6 of the 10 fastest laps and 8 of the 20 fastest laps. For reference, Jason Anderson and Jett Lawrence each had 2 of the 10 fastest laps.
Now let’s look forward. Kenny tied (again) Cooper Webb for 10th on the all-time Supercross wins list (22 wins)
All-Time Supercross Wins List
When Did Roczen Last…?
- The last time Ken Roczen won two races in a row was back in 2021 when he swept the three race residency at Indianapolis. All 3 races were held within an 8 day period.
- The last time Roczen won two in a row in different venues was 2017, Roczen won the Anaheim opener and then again in San Diego the following weekend.
- But now we’re headed to Arlington, which hasn’t been rosy for Roczen. In fact, in the “Date, Marry, Ghost” feature he said “Get rid of Arlington.” Arlington and Daytona are Rounds 7-8 this year. They were 7-8 in 2023 also and ran back to back in 2022, too. Maybe Roczen’s recent finishes in these rounds explains his distaste
- 2023: 5-7 (Arlington-Daytona)
- 2022: 13-7 (Arlington-Daytona)
- 2021: 4-6-3-2 (it went Daytona, Arlington x3 in 2021)
- 2020: 2-1-2 (Arlington, Atlanta, Daytona and then the world shut down)
Notable: Ken Roczen is 3rd in all-time premier class SX wins on a Suzuki behind Mark Barnett and Ricky Carmichael.
All-Time 450SX Winners (Suzuki only)
Arlington not a ‘Darling’
In the clever @supercrosslive social feature “Date, Marry or Ghost”, Arlington was not a favorite for Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen and Chase Sexton who all said they’d “ghost” the venue. Is this an indicator of results or performance?
- Tomac has 3 wins in Arlington (2018, 2020, 2022)
- Roczen went as far as saying “get rid of Arlington”. He won here in 2016.
- Sexton has yet to win a 450 race in the state of Texas.
Not surprisingly, Cooper Webb is “marrying” Arlington (no surprise considering his 5 wins in 9 starts). So is Hunter Lawrence, Austin Forkner and Levi Kitchen.
Smallest Points Gap in History
We’re 6 rounds into the championship and we’ve got the smallest points gap separating the top 5 and top 6 in the championship. And the gap is significantly smaller than than what we’ve seen in past years.
Narrowest Points Gap: Top 5
- The average historical gap for the top 5, after 6 rounds, is 44 pts!
Narrowest Points Gap: Top 6
- The average historical gap for the top 6, after 6 rounds, is 51 pts!
- Fun Fact: As you see in the charts above, the last time the top 5 & 6 was this close was just four years ago (2020). Those 6 riders are still competing today: Roczen, Tomac, Webb, Barcia, Cianciarulo, Anderson.
- And if you drift back to 7th, Tomac is 17 points out of the lead and Dylan Ferrandis is 24 points back in 8th.
- Who was 7th and 8th in 2020? Malcolm Stewart and Blake Baggett were tied, 40 points out of the championship lead.
5 Winners in 6 Rounds
This is the second time in 50 years we’ve had 5 winners in 6 rounds! The only other time it’s happened was in 1985!
With Eli Tomac and Jason Anderson (and Dylan Ferrandis) yet to win in 2024, it’s reasonable to think we could have 6 winners in 7 rounds for the first time since 1985.
That was the year that eventual series champion Jeff Ward got his first (and only of the year) win at round 7 in Houston, TX! Maybe there IS still title hope for Anderson and Tomac.
Ward’s finishes at the first six rounds: 4-2-4-8-3-2.
Could we have 6 winners in a season!? That’s happened 9 times in 50 years of Supercross. The most recent was 2015. That was the year that started with Roczen winning 2 of the first 3 rounds, Tomac won Round 3 and Canard won rounds 4 and 6.
But it was Ryan Dungey who controlled the championship with a season worst of 4th at the opening round.
Notably, there was a 10 year period from 2000-09 where, through the first 6 rounds, there was never more than 3 winners.
This was the end of McGrath’s run, the full Carmichael era, and the heart of Reed and Stewart era. These 4 riders won an incredible 134 of 162 mains (83%) in the 2000s!
Predictable Jett?
Jett’s qualified fastest twice and won the main event both times. The other 4 events he’s averaging 5.5. But the real difference is main event starts.
- He’s got the holeshot in the two races he’s won
- He’s averaging 10th in the races he’s not won
Starts vs. Finish
250SX East
The four riders in the list below are probably still trying to forget about the first turn train wreck that ruined their nights in Detroit earlier this month.
These four championship hopefuls find themselves buried deep after just one round:
- Cameron Mcadoo (-18)
- Haiden Deegan (-19)
- Tom Vialle (-21)
- Seth Hammaker (-24)
This is especially brutal in 2024 because the 250SX East region has just 9 races to stack points vs. the 10 of the West region.
For Deegan, the 16th was the worst Supercross finish of his career. A pair of eighths was as bad as it got in 2023.
For Mcadoo, the 15th in Detroit was his worst finish since Atlanta 3, 2021.
But comebacks are possible in the East! Sometimes you get help from your competition. Take 2007; Ben Townley won the title by 3 points after scoring ZERO at the opening round. Six rounds later, he was the champion.
When Round 1 winner Ryan Dungey crashed out of St. Louis and then didn’t qualify for Daytona (5th in the LCQ!), Townley’s consistency (3 wins/5 total podiums) earned him the title.
It’s the biggest comeback in 125/250SX East history (see chart below). And in 2007 they only had 7 points scoring rounds. Here are the worst starts to a regional 250 Supercross series…
Top 10 Worst 250SX Starts, Still Win Championship
Another big one happened in 1990, Denny Stephenson left the opening 125SX East round (which was an E/W Showdown) with just 3 points. Fortunately for Stephenson, the highest finishing East SX rider was 5th place Barry Carsten, who left Houston with 16 points.
But Stephenson dominated the 1990 series and won the title by 42 points.
There’s also the oh-so-close comebacks; Ryan Villopoto in 2008 (22nd at 1st round, lost by 10 pts to Canard); Jeff Emig in 1991 (DNQ at round 1 and lost to McGrath by 3 pts); Willie Surratt in 1986 West (20th at opener and lost to Schmidt by 12 pts); and Ron Tichenor in 1986 East (DNQ at opener and lost Turpin by 22 pts).
Austin Forkner
The bad news for Mcadoo, Deegan et al, is that they have one of the winningest 250SX riders of all-time leading the points.
Austin Forkner is just one win away from sole possession of 3rd overall on the all-time 250SX wins list. Five more wins ties him with James Stewart.
Top 5 All-Time 250SX Wins
It’s been almost 4 years since Austin Forkner last won back-to-back rounds (Rounds 14-15 in Salt Lake City 2020). In 2019, Forkner won 5 of the first 6 rounds but a torn ACL ended his title run.
For more research on Forkner, read this 2019 article by Brett Smith on the struggles Austin’s mother went through to bring him into the world and what this farming family went through to end up racing professionally.
The KX250F with Pro Circuit
Austin Forkner and Levi Kitchen hold the red plate in their respective regions, but just as impressive is the Kawasaki KX250F won its 200th Pro SX/MX/SMX in Glendale. 199 of those have happened with Mitch Payton’s Pro Circuit Kawasaki alone.
Who got the other one? James Stewart at Glen Helen 2004, his final race in the class.
The Win History of the KX 250F
In Arlington, PC Kawasaki could earn its 200th victory on the KX250F alone. Arlington has been good for three of Payton’s current riders:
- Austin Forkner won in 2019
- Cameron McAdoo won in 2022
- Seth Hammaker won Arlington 1 2021.
KTM Juniors Insight
- Josh Cartwright won the 2004 race.
- Preston Taylor was 3rd in the 2008 race.
- Gavin Towers was 2nd in the 2013 race.
Manufacturers Cup
- For the 1st time this season, Kawasaki took top honors in Glendale with the 2nd place finishes of Jason Anderson (450’s) and Levi Kitchen (250’s).
- Yamaha maintains the series lead, 10 points ahead of Kawasaki and 18 points ahead of Honda. It was Eli Tomac and Jordon Smith with a pair of 4th’s in Glendale to score 36 points and 3rd overall.
Recommended RC Insight
There’s A LOT that could be talked about, but here’s a couple that feel more interesting from the GOAT at Arlington
450 Recommendation – Go Time.
- RC is credited with saying the series starts at Daytona, but…
- From Round 6 on in 50 years of racing, the eventual champion has never been lower than 3rd
- With 5 winners in 6 rounds, this year could be different but it’s Go Time!
250 Recommendation – Redemption.
- There were 4 title contenders (among others) down in the first turn in Detroit – Deegan, McAdoo, Vialle, and Hammaker.
- They’ll want redemption and to come out and grab as many points as possible to stay in this championship.
Race Day Live – Fast Fact
250 Recommendation – Repeat.
- It’s been over 3 years since Austin Forkner won back-to-back rounds.
- He won the 2020 rounds 14 and 15 in Salt Lake City
450 Recommendation – Wire-to-wire Wins.
- A different way to look at how important the start is…
- We’ve had 6 of 8 wire-to-wire wins in the premier class.
- Only San Diego (Roczen/Plessinger) and A2 TC Race 2 (Webb/Anderson) had multiple leaders
Milestones
Accomplished
- Ken Roczen (2,554 SX pts) passed Larry Ward (2,546 SX pts) for 8th all-time
- Ken Roczen (66 SX podiums) tied Jeff Ward (66 SX podiums) for 9th all-time
- Ken Roczen (116 SX+MX podiums) tied Rick Johnson (116 SX+MX podiums) for 9th all-time
- Cooper Webb (3,437 SX+MX pts) passed Michael Byrne (3,427 SX+MX pts) for 43rd all-time
- RJ Hampshire (1,022 SX pts) passed Zach Osborne (999 SX pts) and Greg Schnell (1,006 SX pts) for 8th all-time
- Jo Shimoda (2,029 SX+MX pts) passed Jett Lawrence (2,017 SX+MX pts) for 41st all-time
- RJ Hampshire (61 SX starts) tied Brock Sellards for 18th all-time
Potential
- Jett Lawrence (13 SX+MX wins) is just 1 shy of Chase Sexton (14 SX+MX wins) for 33rd all-time
- Cooper Webb (5,379 SX+MX pts) is just 3 points shy of Bob Hannah (5,382 SX+MX pts) for 32nd all-time
- Jason Anderson (140 SX starts) is just 1 shy of Andrew Short (141 SX starts) for 14th all-time
- Jason Anderson (2,412 SX pts) is just 11 points shy of Justin Brayton (2,423 SX pts) for 10th all-time
- Josh Hill (99 SX starts) is just 1 from tying Ivan Tedesco and Rick Johnson (100 SX starts) for 41st all-time
- Austin Forkner (21 SX podiums) is just 1 shy from tying 4 riders for 10th all-time
- RJ Hampshire (1,022 SX pts) is just 13 points shy of Shane McElrath (1,035 SX pts) for 7th all-time
- RJ Hampshire (3,639 SX+MX pts) is just 10 points shy of Alex Martin (3,649 SX+MX pts) for 3rd all-time
- Jordon Smith (991 SX pts) is just 8 points shy of Zach Osborne (999 SX pts) for 10th all-time and Greg Schnell is another 7 points.
- Jordon Smith (22 SX podiums) is just 1 shy of Craig/McGrath/J Lawrence/Barcia/Osborne (23 SX podiums) for a tie at 5th all-time
- Jeremy Martin (59 SX starts) is just 1 shy of Shane McElrath/Ryan Morais/RJ Hampshire (60 SX starts) to move into a tie for 19th all-time