2025 Anaheim Supercross Research

The 2025 Anaheim Supercross is upon us! It’s new season week and that means the return of Shop Rag, We Went Fast’s research material, a document packed with stats and stories for the NBC broadcast and Race Day Live crews.

Below you’ll find the stories we’re discussing as we head into round one of the 2025 Monster Energy Supercross Championship. Only We Went Fast Garage Members can see the full text of each story.

Supercross Winners: Ages By the Decade

We’ve seen the trend for a few years – the field is getting older or, as some may say, more experienced. Case in point, 19 of the 46 riders who scored points in the 2024 Supercross championship will be in their 30s in 2025.

The ‘heat map’ seen in this post…

… gives a great overview of the ages of all the winners of the more than 750 Supercross races…Choose your theory: better training, advancements in healthcare, better choices, etc. has led to an older lineup.

Winner Age by Decade

• In the 1970s, most wins came from riders aged 21 years old.
• This rose to 22 years old in the 1980s.
• In the 1990s and 2000s it was 21 year olds again (McGrath, Stewart)
• But in the 2010s it rose to 24 year olds.
• And, so far, in the 2020s it has risen to 28 year olds!
• 2024: Jett Lawrence became the first 20 year old to win since 2015 (Roczen)
• 2025: Jett Lawrence could become the first 21-year-old to win since 2016 (also Roczen)

Even if you remove Ryan Dungey and Eli Tomac from the above chart, the age with the most wins in the 2010s is STILL 24 and the 2020s is STILL 28. Simply, success is coming at a later age, on average, in Supercross.

Jett Lawrence is responsible for all eight of the wins by 20-year-olds in the 2020s and now that he is 21, we’re more than likely to see a slight shift in this chart. But not drastically, as some have predicted, with the looming retirement of riders like Eli Tomac (32), Cooper Webb (29), Ken Roczen (30), and Jason Anderson (31).

Their wins will be replaced by the next crop of stars and they aren’t any younger.

Yes, Jett Lawrence is younger, but he’s the only current rider in the class under 25 with win potential. Chase Sexton and Hunter Lawrence are 25. Justin Cooper is 26. Aaron Plessinger is 28. The only 250 rider expected to move up to the 450s in the next 3 years that’s UNDER 23 is Haiden Deegan (ETA, 2027).

For reference, Tom Vialle is already 24 and Levi Kitchen will turn 24 in February.

This trend is here to stay.

Jett Lawrence: On a GOAT Path

This isn’t hyperbole. These charts show that Jett Lawrence is setting an unprecedented pace.

Last year at this time Jett Lawrence had never lined up for a premier class supercross race. He went on to be the 3rd rookie to win the Supercross championship in the 50 year history of the sport. That alone was impressive, but he also…

• Won Anaheim 1: First rider to ever win their first 450SX start
• Won Daytona: First rookie to ever win the Daytona Supercross; ended Eli Tomac’s 5 year Daytona win streak.
• Swept Indianapolis Triple Crown: 1st rookie (2nd rider) to ever sweep a Triple Crown.
• Three-peat (twice): 1 of 6 riders in SX history to win 3-in-a-row (twice) in a single season

This was after he swept 22 of 22 motos in his rookie Pro Motocross season. As it stands today, he has won 2 of the 3 premier class titles along with both SuperMotocross World Championships, just 1.5 years into his premier class career. At this point:

He’s on pace to be the best the sport has ever seen. Not just the best in Supercross. Not just the best in Pro Motocross. The best in both!

The key phrase here is ‘on pace’. Before the haters hate, we know it’s one thing to have success over 2 years and it’s another to do so year over year over year for an entire career. Nonetheless, Jett Lawrence is on pace to be considered one of the best ever.

Look strictly at his combined 33 450 regular season starts (17 SX, 16 MX), his 2 titles and 23 wins (70% win rate) he is outpacing everyone in history.

Let’s look at the bigger picture…

Comparing the Greats: Combined Disciplines

3 other riders have won 2 of 3 equivalent titles to Jett Lawrence.

• Jeremy McGrath won his rookie Supercross title and the 1995 Pro Motocross title (his second year in the premier class). His starts includes 6 450SX starts from the year prior to his rookie season.
• Ricky Carmichael won the 2000 and 2001 Pro Motocross titles, but missed 6 rounds of the 1999 SX season, his rookie year.
• Ryan Dungey won his rookie Supercross and Pro Motocross seasons. His starts include 3 SX starts from the 2008 season (2 years before his rookie year).

Comparing the Greats: SX Only*

Looking just at Supercross, Jett Lawrence trails Jeremy McGrath and Chad Reed (ignoring their pre-rookie season starts), but they don’t stack up in Pro Motocross.

* McGrath, Reed, Dungey, Tomac, Hannah and Johnson all ‘moonlighted’ before their first full year in the class. Those starts are not reflected here.

Comparing the Greats – MX

Ricky Carmichael outpaces Jett in both wins and, most importantly, a second Pro Motocross title, but RC was injured in his rookie Supercross season and had no Supercross wins.

* Stanton’s stats include both 250 and 500 class

** In a (very) different time in the sport, Hannah won the 1976 125cc championship, and also raced some 250 and 500 class MX races. It could be argued that 1978 was his rookie season and he would’ve won the title and then again in 1979.

Chances of a Back-to-Back Champion

The chances of Jett Lawrence winning again…

Jett Lawrence will try to do what Jason Anderson (2018), Cooper Webb (2019, 2021), Eli Tomac (2020, 2022), and Chase Sexton (2023) have not been able to do… win back-to-back premier class championships.

• Interestingly, the last rider to double up was Ryan Dungey, who three-peated 2015-17. Ryan was also the last rookie to win the premier class championship (2010).
• Jeremy McGrath, the first rookie to ever win the premier class championship (1993), won 4-in-a-row 1993-96.

Previous Back-to-Back Champions

Eli Tomac is the Exception.

Eli Tomac is re-writing the expectations of a professional SuperMotocross career. This post looks at where he is on the all-time 450 lists.

Tomac is entering the 15th year of his professional career (12th in the premier class).

He’s considered one of, if not the, best. With good reason, he’s already stamped his hall of fame entry with 6 premier class titles along with a couple from his 250 career.

• 2x Supercross champion
• 4x Pro Motocross champion
• 2012 250 West Supercross champion
• 2013 250 Pro Motocross champion

Most interesting is how he’s done it; he’s stayed at the top for a full decade. 46 of his 84 (55%) wins are when he was 26 years or older!

• Ricky Carmichael retired at 27 years old. Just 23 of his 124 wins (19%) came after turning 26.
• Ryan Dungey had 13 wins (18%) after 26.
• Ryan Villopoto won his last AMA race (2014 Las Vegas Supercross) when he was just 25 years old.
• Even Chad Reed, who didn’t retire until he was 38, only won 19 of his 54 (35%) races after his 26th birthday.

It’s a rarity to compete at the top of the sport into your late 20s, never mind into your early 30s. But that’s exactly what Eli’s done. He’s the exception to the ‘it’s a young man’s sport’ rule. He ranks among the best and he’s ascended to that position later in his career.

Eli Tomac: All-Time 450 Ranks

What’s Next for Eli Tomac?

Having won most everything, it’s surprising to say he can achieve more. He’s in position to be Top 5 in combined SX+MX wins, podiums, points, and starts. The only other rider even close is Chad Reed but his win total ranks him 8th all-time – he simply didn’t have the success in Pro Motocross.

These are all premier class specific.

• 1 more 450SX win and he’s the only rider in SX history to win for 11 consecutive seasons.
• 1 more win in Pro Motocross ties him for 3rd with Rick Johnson (includes RJ’s 500cc wins).
• 3 more wins (total) and he’ll tie Jeremy McGrath for 2nd on the all-time combined.
• 10 more Supercross podiums ties him with Jeremy McGrath for 2nd all-time.
• 3 more podiums (SX or MX) and he’ll tie Chad Reed for most all-time combined 450 SX/MX podiums.
• 4 more points in Supercross and he passes Jeremy McGrath for 3rd all-time. Just 243 more points and he passes Mike LaRocco for 2nd all-time on the most 450SX points chart.
• 279 more points in Pro Motocross to tie Kevin Windham for 3rd all-time and 326 to tie Ricky Carmichael for 2nd all-time.
• 158 more points (combined) to tie Kevin Windham for 3rd all-time and 226 to tie Chad Reed for 2nd all-time (combined).
• 11 Supercross starts to tie Justin Brayton and Larry Ward for 5th all-time and 13 to tie Nick Wey for 4th all-time.
• In combined starts, he’s 1 behind Justin Barcia for 7th all-time, 6 behind Justin Brayton for 6th all-time, and 24 behind Larry Ward for 5th all-time.

Eli is the exception – he’s performed at the top, for a very long time.

Haiden Deegan vs. Levi Kitchen.

Haiden Deegan and Levi Kitchen will be the title favorites in the 250 West region. This post explores their results head to head.

Both are, arguably, the biggest talents in the small bike class (with all due respect to RJ Hampshire, Tom Vialle and others).

The two riders have taken to social media for a fair bit of trash talk this off-season. At media days, Haiden Deegan seemed to indicate the relationship had shifted from friendship to competitor. Levi Kitchen indicated no change. Once the gate drops at Anaheim 1 we’ll know for sure.

A sampling here. These comment screenshots are from the same social post. The image on the right is a continuation of the image on the left.

Both had impressive 2024 seasons. The advantage goes to Haiden Deegan, who won the Pro Motocross title (including sweeping his home race Pala and winning at Washougal, Kitchen’s home track).

But Levi Kitchen was a lot more consistent in Supercross last year. Seven podiums in 10 starts and only one race outside the top 10 (14th in Nashville). Unfortunately, that one race in Nashville was an East/West showdown and proved very costly points-wise. Nonetheless, Haiden finished outside the top 5 three times last year (16th Detroit, 9th Birmingham, 6th Nashville).

Haiden Deegan vs. Levi Kitchen – 2024 250 SX+MX

We anticipate plenty of good banter leading up to the gate drops and even more once the laps start ticking down.