Shop Rag: 2024 Unadilla Pro Motocross Research

Welcome to Unadilla!

“The place to race since 1969,” upstate New York’s Unadilla MX is one of America’s original motocross tracks, hosting the biggest events in sport history, including USGPs, the Motocross of Nations, Pro Motocross and more.

A truly European layout with Woodstock vibes, the former dairy farm lies within the Unadilla River Valley, six miles north of the town of New Berlin and between Syracuse and Albany. Unadilla is an Iroquois word that means “place of meeting.”

For more history and Unadilla all-time leaderboards, winners, and historical race results…

Current MX Points Standings

It’s been a few weeks. Let’s catch everyone up on the points picture. Chase Sexton leads the 450 class (+28) and Haiden Deegan leads the 250 class (+54). Filter this chart by class. Use the search tool to quickly find the name you want

Foreign Success

Over the last 5 years, foreign riders have won 9 of 10 overalls at Unadilla across both the 250 and 450 classes. It’s not entirely surprising, Unadilla has always been an international draw, likely a combination of its history hosting Motocross des Nations (MXdN) and USGP races in the 1970s and 1980s.

• Chase Sexton (2022) is the only American to win in the 450 class in the last 5 years. You have to go back to 2015 to find the next American winner, Ryan Dungey. Dungey won back-to-back in 2014-15.
• Notable, Eli Tomac has never won at Unadilla in the 450s (won 250MX in 2013).
• Foreign riders have won 9 of the 32 years the 250/450 class has raced at Unadilla. Nearly half of those 9 wins are in the last 5 years!

Most Recent 450MX Unadilla Winners

• Jeremy Martin, aboard a GEICO Honda, was the last American to win at Unadilla back in 2017. That was 6 years ago!
• Foreign riders have won 13 of the 33 years the 125/250 class has raced at Unadilla. Nearly half of those 13 wins are in the last 5 years!

Most Recent 250MX Unadilla Winners

Notable Stats:

• Five different countries have won the last 10 overalls: France, Japan, Australia, Germany, United States.
• The Lawrence brothers (Australia) swept the overall wins in 2023.
• 2015 was the last USA sweep (Ryan Dungey, 450 / Joey Savatgy, 250).

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Unadilla’s Grand Marshal – Phil Nicoletti

With just 6 professional races left before the fan favorite ‘grumpy’ veteran retires, Phil Nicoletti will be the Grand Marshal at Unadilla. Makes sense, it’s Nicoletti’s home track, he grew up in Cohocton, NY, a ‘relatively’ short 177 mile drive west of Unadilla (Cohocton is 1.5 hrs southeast of Buffalo and 1 hour south of Rochester).

It should then come as no surprise that Phil’s only career 450 Pro Motocross overall podium was at Unadilla in 2018 when he went 3-5 for 3rd overall.

That said, he’s only averaged 13th overall at ‘Dilla It’s his 12th best of the 16 venues he’s competed at. This is mostly due to a 38-40 for 39th overall in 2015. But of all the tracks he’s raced, he’s scored the most top 10 moto finishes at Unadilla (9), topping the 8 he has at Budds Creek.

Phil-adilla: Nicoletti’s Career 250/450 Stats @ Unadilla

If Phil races out these final six events, he will have lined up for 206 combined (all classes) Supercross, Pro motocross, and SuperMotocross races (60th all-time).

His first race (and points scored) came in 2006 at Broome-Tioga Raceway in Binghamton, NY where he finished 20-37 for 25th overall. His last will likely be in Las Vegas at the 2024 SuperMotocross Finals.

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Moto Win Streaks

Chase Sexton is approaching rare territory in Pro Motocross. He’s won seven consecutive motos starting at Southwick M.2. If he sweeps at Unadilla he’ll enter a three way tie for 10th all-time in most consecutive premier class moto wins.

All-Time Longest 250/450/500MX Moto Win Streaks

This is the 250/450/500MX class but excludes 500cc from 1972-85.

• You may have noticed the absence of four time 450MX champion Eli Tomac on the above list. His longest streak is eight moto wins. In 2022 (against Sexton), Tomac won High Point M.2 through Washougal M. 1 (rounds 4-8)
• If Sexton wins the remaining six motos in 2024, he’ll end the season with 13 straight and tie Ricky Carmichael for 5th most consecutive moto wins.

Every rider on the moto wins streak chart above had already won at least one Pro Motocross championship during the time of their streak. Sexton has yet to win a motocross title.

Looking toward this upcoming weekend, Sexton has some success at Unadilla…

• 5 of 6 moto podiums in 450MX
• 1-1 sweep for 1st overall in 2022 (at the time it was his second ever moto sweep in 450)
• The only American to win an overall (2022) in the last 5 years.

Sexton at Unadilla (450)

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Honda’s 450 Podium Streak Ends

American Honda’s Pro Motocross podium streak ended at 30 races (3rd longest all-time) when Hunter Lawrence finished 4th at Washougal. The last time a Honda CRF450R wasn’t on the podium before that was Hangtown 2021 (round 12) nearly 3 years ago!

• Honda HRC rider Chase Sexton missed rounds 11-12 in 2021 and Ken Roczen was 9th overall at Hangtown 2021
• Honda went 30 consecutive rounds with a podium finish: 2022 (12); 2023 (11); 2024 (7).

All-Time Manufacturer Podium Streaks (250/450)

Notable Stats

• Honda has the 3 longest 250/450 podium streaks in Pro Motocross history and 5 streaks inside the top 10.
• During Honda’s 2001-04 streak they swept the podium twice: Once in 2003 (Rd. 8 Washougal) with Windham/Carmichael/LaRocco and again in 2004 (Rd. 11 Steel City) with Carmichael/Windham/Alessi.
• Honda swept the 1986 Southwick podium with RJ/Bailey/O’Mara.
• KTM swept the 2017 finale at Ironman with Herlings/Musquin/Baggett.
• Ricky Carmichael, Sebastien Tortelli, John Dowd, and Ken Roczen are part of two different manufacturer’s Top 10 all-time podium streaks – all of them with Honda and Suzuki!

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Jason Anderson Podiums

Jason Anderson’s Washougal podium (4-2 / 3rd) was the 26th of his 450MX career and his first since Budds Creek 2023 (rd. 10). He’d finished 4th and 5th overall at the last two rounds so it seemed like a matter of time.

Now we’re headed to Unadilla and, unfortunately for Anderson, it has been a mixed venue for him. He has four starts here in the 450 class. He’s currently 5th in the standings -20 points back of Aaron Plessinger in 4th.

Anderson’s Unadilla 450 Career Results

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Champions Return

With 3 rounds remaining in the Pro Motocross championship, we’re likely to see 2 (potentially 3) champions return to action. Ken Roczen confirmed he’s racing Unadilla and then a 250 at the final Ironman (he last raced a 250 at Lake Elsinore 2013 were he finished 1-7 for 2nd overall).

We’re also anticipating the return of Cooper Webb and have even heard rumors Eli Tomac may line up.

Roczen has said this is the only 450MX he will enter. This one race may be enough to save +1 position and +1 point in the SMX championship standings. He’s currently +9 points ahead of Shane McElrath and +23 points ahead of Christian Craig.

We’re predicting a 35 point day for Roczen (3-7 moto finishes gets that done) and that is reflected in the SMX Playoff update below.

If McElrath (17.5) and Craig (11.6) finish their season averages through Ironman, Roczen will lose positions to both. That said, Unadilla is a very strong venue for Roczen and a monster points haul could help him retain his spot:

• He’s got 3 overall wins in 7 starts (6 moto wins).
• The 3 overall wins are all perfect 1-1 days (2016 Suz, 2019 Hon, 2021 Hon).
• He’s averaged 39 points in his 7 visits to Unadilla… 4 more than our projections and those +4 pts would keep him in front of Christian Craig in the SMX championship standings.

For Cooper Webb and Eli Tomac, there’s no upside or downside in the SMX championship standings. If they don’t race, they’re projected to finish 10th and 11th in the championship. If they do, we’ve still got them finishing 10th and 11th. What IS important are gate drops, race pace, and time in the saddle.

Roczen, Webb, Tomac: 2024 SX Season Stats

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Unadilla Loves Danger

Haiden Deegan has a sweet 54 point lead over Tom Vialle in 250MX. If he continues his averages over the next two rounds, he clinches the championship at Budds Creek (one round early).

To clinch at Unadilla, Deegan would need Vialle (-54), Levi Kitchen (-70) and Chance Hymas (-86) to ALL have (really) bad races and he’d need to put 10 points on Jo Shimoda (-90).

The chances of all that happening are slim so let’s explore another scenario that Deegan already has experience with: Unadilla’s cruel way of disrupting or destroying championship runs.

Here’s three key 21st century 125/250 class examples:

2023: Deegan entered Unadilla just three points behind leader Hunter Lawrence after a brilliant 1-1 at Washougal. On lap 13 of M.1, however, (while running 3rd), Deegan’s bike quit and he scored a DNF (38th). In M.2 he got pushed off the track in both starts (there was a red flag) and battled back to 10th. He left Unadilla in 4th place (-36)

2010: Christophe Pourcel entered Unadilla (rd. 9/12) with a 38 point lead over Trey Canard and set the fastest overall qualifying time. He also went 1-1 at Unadilla 2009 so it seemed likely he’d leave NY with an even larger lead.

Pourcel crashed on lap two of M.1 while running second and DNF-ed with a bent up bike. He won M.2 and retained the points lead but Unadilla was the precursor of an even bigger meltdown at round 12.

2001: Travis Pastrana was half a lap away from leaving Unadilla (rd. 7/12) with a dominating 1-1 finish and (what would have been) a 50 point lead over Grant Langston. Instead, he went over the bars less than 60 seconds from the M.2 finish and suffered a concussion (and a DNF).

While he still held the points lead, Pastrana’s season unraveled further two rounds later at Washougal when he suffered another concussion. The Moto 1 win at Unadilla was the final moto victory (and podium) of Pastrana’s career.

The 250/450 class has its own tales of Unadilla heartbreak. Here’s just a couple:

In 1994, Mike Kiedrowski took a rock to the hand in moto one, which allowed Mike LaRocco to coast to the title.

James Stewart would like to erase 2005 (crashed out of moto 1), 2006 (crashed in practice and didn’t race) and 2007 (crashed in qualifying and didn’t race) from his memory.

In Ricky Carmichael’s retirement tour season (2007) Unadilla was the first round he didn’t run. Stewart would have left Unadilla with a massive points lead. Instead, Carmichael maintained the lead, Stewart stayed in second +19 on his teammate, Tim Ferry.

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Kitchen’s Breakout Season

Levi Kitchen’s Washougal (12-4/6th) was a disappointing race for the hometown favorite but he’s still having a career best season. In under half the races from the previous two seasons…

• He’s significantly improved his speed. 10th vs. 5th in qualifying and he’s been fastest overall rider at 2 of the 8 rounds this season.
• He’s led 3 motos and 29 laps this season – nearly the same in half the amount of races.
• He got his first overall win and 3 overall podiums. Again, nearly the same in half the amount of races.

Kitchen’s Progression

The chart below does not include 2021, when he competed in his first six Pro Motocross races.

Throw in that he finished 2nd in the 250 Supercross West region championship, Levi Kitchen is having a breakout season.

Looking forward, he’s likely to finish 2nd in the SMX standings and with his strength in BOTH Supercross and Pro Motocross has to be considered one of, if not the, favorite to win the SMX championship.

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SMX Playoff Update

It’s playoff projection time and there was BIG movement coming out of Washougal. If you need a SuperMotocross 411 refresher, scroll to the bottom. Otherwise, we’re jumping in to look forward at who’s going to make the top 20 and top 30 combined in Supercross and Pro Motocross points.

250 SMX Projections

• We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 172 points. This is up +1 point from pre-Washougal.
• There are 19 riders that have scored enough points to secure a top 20 playoff berth – Deegan, Vialle, Kitchen, Shimoda, Hymas, Swoll, Brown, Smith, Beaumer, DiFrancesco, Bennick, Thrasher, Hampshire, Schock, Masterpool, Anstie, Romano, Cochran, and after Washougal Joey Savatgy.

1 Final Transfer Position, 4 Riders

• Dilan Schwartz (20th, 125 pts) had a career best 5th in Spring Creek followed by his fifth 14th overall of the season at Washougal, enough to move him +2 positions and into the 20th and final transfer position.
• Garrett Marchbanks (21st, 121 pts) shared that he was “trying to figure out how to race the last 3 nationals” the week after Spring Creek and we got the news on July 29th he’ll be lining up aboard a Pro Circuit Kawasaki 250F. He’s got 25 career 250 starts and 10 top 10 overall finishes. His best finish was a 10-4 for 5th overall at High Point in 2021 – his only top 5 moto and overall finish.

• Talon Hawkins (23rd, 105 pts) is still in this but not with his recent performance (top 15 in just 2 of last 8 motos).
• Jett Reynolds (26th, 99 pts) finished a career best 10th overall at Washougal (13-10). While he’s -26 points behind Schwartz, he’s still got a shot at that 20th position if Schwartz falters.

250SMX Rankings

Filter or re-sort the data by tapping the top of the columns (black area)

These 12 riders have an automatic LCQ Bid: RJ Hampshire, Jordon Smith, Nate Thrasher, Levi Kitchen, Austin Forkner, Haiden Deegan, Tom Vialle, Cameron McAdoo, Max Anstie, Jo Shimoda, Chance Hymas, and Ty Masterpool

450 SMX Projections

• We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 149 points, which is down -4 points from the previous week.
• There are 15 riders that have already scored more than the 149 points and we believe have secured a top 20 playoff berth – J. Lawrence, Sexton, H. Lawrence, Cooper, Anderson, Plessinger, Barcia, Stewart, Ferrandis, Webb, Tomac, McElrath, Roczen, Craig, and Noren (secured at Washougal).
• Chase Sexton will likely clinch the top SMX seed at Unadilla. He’s currently +106 points ahead of Jett Lawrence, +124 points over Jason Anderson, and +128 points over Hunter Lawrence. The magic number is +100 leaving Unadilla.

The Jett is Nosediving

In the three-race final stretch of Pro Motocross, Jett Lawrence will likely tumble from second to sixth in the rankings. Why is this important? If SuperMotocross started RIGHT NOW, Jett would have earned 22 seeding points (Sexton would have 25).

Lawrence likely falls to 6th and starts the playoffs with 16 seeding points (-6 fewer points).

You can say “the points don’t matter” because of the double and triple points escalation at SMX rounds two and three. We disagree. This isn’t “Who’s Line is it Anyway?” The points do matter. The difference between first and second at the final SMX round is nine points.

Sexton will likely start the playoffs with nine more points than Jett. Still not convinced…? Haiden Deegan won the 2023 250 SMX championship by 5 points over Jo Shimoda.

Jett’s Points Journey:

He fell to second place after RedBud but he now has third through sixth in position to overtake. The following riders are more than likely surpassing Jett at Unadilla:

• 3rd: Jason Anderson (-18)
• 4th: Hunter Lawrence (-22)

Justin Cooper is -50 behind Jett. He likely moves into 4th after Budds Creek M.1

Aaron Plessinger is -82 behind Jett. He’s averaging 34 points per round and likely bumps Jett down after the final round (Ironman).

Malcolm Stewart’s (-148 behind Jett) average of 27 points isn’t going to be enough. But if he caught fire and won six motos in a row, he’d pick up that position (and maybe more).

6 Riders, 5 Positions

There are currently 6 riders separated by 7 points – each has a chance to secure the 16th to 20th transfer positions.

• Phil Nicoletti (16th, 125 points) is at the top of this pack but a crash in moto 1 at Washougal resulted in a 34th and zero points. While this tightened the battle, he’s still in great position.
• Harri Kullas (17th, 120 points) has 5 top 10 moto finishes in the last 8 motos and is the most consistent of this crew. He’s now expected to race the last 3 rounds and we predict he finishes highest of these 7 riders come the final standings.
• Kyle Chisholm (18th, 120 points) has finished 13th overall the last two rounds (season bests) and finished inside the top 15 in 2 of 4 motos (double his previous 12 motos).

• Dean Wilson (19th, 119 points) is expected to miss Unadilla but will race the last 2 rounds of the series. This leaves the door a bit open for Harlan and Weltin to pass him in the standings. He’ll need to be strong in those final four motos.
• Grant Harlan (20th, 118 points) went 9-38 at Washougal – season best and worst moto finishes. Most important: in Moto 1, he showed his capabilities!
• Marshal Weltin (21st, 118 points) finished a season best 11-9 for 10th overall (ties career best overall finish). He’s clearly aware of what’s on the line with six motos remaining.

450SMX Rankings

Note that Justin Hill (22nd, 106 points) is still in the picture. But we got intel that he does not intend to race the last 3 Pro Motocross rounds. He also got banged up at the Big Hill Jam.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…

• Romain Pape (25th, 71 pts) finished a season best 11-17 for 14th overall at Spring Creek.
• Derek Kelley (26th 70 pts) finished a season best 12th overall with 14-11 moto finishes at Washougal. He’s doing everything he can but it is likely too late to crack the top 20.
• Colt Nichols (29th, 62 pts) has signed with HEP Suzuki and will likely return to action at Unadilla.

Seven riders have an automatic LCQ Bid = Jett Lawrence, Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, Aaron Plessinger, and Hunter Lawrence

The next few rounds will be pivotal. Those that stay in contention with good, consistent motos will make for an interesting battle in the final few rounds. With 7 450 riders battling for 5 spots in the top 20, the fans are going to be treated to some great racing at the final rounds of Pro Motocross.

SuperMotocross 411

• Combined Supercross and Pro Motocross points determine how the SMX Playoff seeding points are allocated. 1st gets 25 points, 2nd gets 22 points, and so forth using the same points structure.
  • The 250 supercross region with 1 extra round has to drop their 10th/worst round finish.
• Anyone that wins a Supercross main event or Pro Motocross moto gets an automatic bid into the LCQ. Keep in mind, they have to race the LCQ every single round of the playoffs to earn a spot in the motos.
• The top 20 are automatically given a gate for every round. Note, if a rider in the top 20 is injured or opts out of the SMX Playoffs, that opens one more transfer spot in the LCQ but does not give the 21st rider an automatic spot in the motos.
• Top 21-30 get a spot on the LCQ gate and have to finish 1st or 2nd to earn a spot in the motos. Keep in mind there will be invitations for the LCQ if riders are injured or opt-out of the SMX Playoffs.