Analysis: Is Jett Lawrence the Greatest Rookie Ever?

It’s time to talk about this: we haven’t even reached the two-thirds point of the 2024 Monster Energy Supercross Championship and Jett Lawrence isn’t just in prime position to win the title; he’s in the hunt for the greatest rookie season of all-time.

“Treason!” you cry. “Off with his head,” they chant. Those who speak against Jeremy McGrath, The King of Supercross and the reigning greatest Supercross rookie of all-time, do so at their own peril. But this isn’t 10th century England and anyone who has halfway paid attention can see what Lawrence has already done in 10 rounds and who he’s doing it against.

Let’s flashback 31 years to 1993. Here’s what McGrath faced at round one in Orlando: the field included just one former champion (Jeff Stanton) and four riders who had previously won a Supercross. Total 450SX race win count: 37.

Here’s what lined up at round one on Jan. 6, 2024: four former champions (6 titles combined) and seven riders who had previously hoisted a 450SX winner’s trophy over their heads. Total career win count: 122 (and for the fact checkers, don’t forget Minneapolis 2008 winner Josh Hill. Hey, he made the night show).

With Lawrence getting his first win in his first try, and Aaron Plessinger winning his first 450SX at round three, we’re up to nine winners racing in 2024.

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450SX Rookie Report Cards (thru 10 rounds)

NOTE! Columns can be resorted by tapping the black headers. On mobile, scroll left/right for more info.

Jett Lawrence: “Gotta Pinch Yourself”

After the wire to wire Birmingham win, Lawrence was asked if he had processed what he was doing against this lineup of champions and winners. In response, he shared memories of being a young teenager in Europe, watching Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen and Cooper Webb racing in America.

When he came to the United States in 2019, he had opportunities to be a junior training partner with a few of those riders he now competes against. Those impressions stuck with him.

“Now that I’m racing these guys, it’s kind of like, I kind of forget who I am sometimes,” said Lawrence, now 20. “[On the start line] I’m sitting next to [Eli] Tomac and Kenny [Roczen] or Cooper [Webb] and I’m [saying to myself] ‘Yeah, this is sick’, and then [I go] ‘Oh, I need to a job’. Gotta kind of pinch yourself.”

As a 21-year-old rookie, Jeremy McGrath said something similar to himself: “I’m going into the ‘93 season basically racing against my heroes that I’m like, ‘these guys are gods’,” he said. “They’re unbeatable!”

Lawrence can now stop pinching himself; in just three weekends he manhandled Daytona, dominated Birmingham and surgically controlled all three races of the Indianapolis Triple Crown. He’s more than proven his place amongst the riders he once idolized from afar.

And now he’s on pace to come close to, match, even snatch, the 450SX rookie season wins record. Set in 1993, over a decade before Lawrence was born, McGrath ended that year with 10 wins in 16 races. At the time, that was also the most races any rider had ever won in a season. Period.

With five wins in the first 10 rounds, and seven races remaining in 2024, Lawrence is now tied with Damon Bradshaw for fourth most rookie season wins. One more win ties him with Ryan Dungey (6). The only rider on this chart below that Lawrence isn’t already outpacing for wins is McGrath.

Most 450SX Rookie Wins

Like McGrath, Lawrence is the only other rookie to string together three consecutive overalls within the first 10 rounds. Inside Lucas Oil Stadium last weekend, his third consecutive victory happened in big-red-stamp fashion.

In the Indy press conference, there was no ‘look at what you’re doing’ comments or questions. Lawrence talked about comfort and rhythm on a track that was anything but comfortable or rhythmic, while Roczen, the only rider who actually challenged Lawrence in the Triple Crown, answered “survival” as his one word response to how he manages a track like that.

Roczen led the first six laps of TC1 and TC2 and the first 10 laps of TC3 but every time he put some distance between he and Lawrence, Lawrence figured out a way to keep Kenny close.

With a 21-point lead, murmurs of ‘it’s over’ circulate the between-rounds conversations. And that isn’t exactly defeatist chatter; it’s reality. In 50 years of Supercross, only two comebacks (greater than -17 points) have ever happened after round 10; the first was in 1983 and the second just last year when Cooper Webb exited the season in Nashville and then Eli Tomac ruptured his Achilles in Denver.

Jeremy McGrath Artwork!

We Saw This Coming, Right?

January 6, 2024 seems like an eternity ago, when the series and fans greatly anticipated watching a new crop of rookies go up against a powerful group of champions and veterans.

Because of Lawrence’s unique premier class entry (MX, SMX, then SX) and then the way he dominated Pro Motocross to the point of perfection, and then won the inaugural SuperMotocross Championship, winning right away in Supercross was almost expected. And if it wasn’t expected, it certainly wasn’t a surprise when he did.

This wasn’t so when Jeremy McGrath lined up in Orlando for the 1993 Supercross opener. In fact, he was so unsure of his own ability that he asked Honda to renegotiate his contract to pay main event bonuses back to fifth place because he couldn’t see himself getting on the podium when his competition included his teammate, defending champion, Jeff Stanton, Damon Bradshaw, who won nine races the previous year, Mike LaRocco and Mike Kiedrowski, who both made frequent podium appearances, and a handful of other riders that he didn’t see himself beating often, if ever.

Hindsight is so crystal clear, however, and McGrath cost himself a lot of money changing that contract. Pre-season 1993, if you wrote a preview that suggested Damon Bradshaw would win just two races, finish off the podium more than on and end the season in fourth, and Jeff Stanton would only get a garbage-time victory, and end the season in third, and that a rookie would set a new single season win record, you would have been accused of drinking too much premix.

“I was feeling apologetic for beating [Stanton], even for passing him,” McGrath said. “But from there the confidence took over. I was like, ‘Oh, I can do that every week. That’s not that hard.’ And, as they say, the rest is history.”

Chad Reed and Ryan Dungey

In 2003, Chad Reed put in the greatest rookie performance to not win a title. He scored 360 points in a 16-race season, won more races than the champion, Ricky Carmichael, and landed on 14 podiums. His worst finish? Sixth place, twice. On one hand, you could argue that the field was weak (just three riders qualified for all 16 main events) or you could look at this way: Carmichael and Reed were just that good.

In 2010, rookie Ryan Dungey faced a brutal lineup; he went up against seven riders who had won a race, including defending champion James Stewart, who won round one (Dungey was second) and former two-time champion Reed (who finished 19th). But by round seven, both riders were gone from the series. At round 14/17, Dungey’s last remaining serious challenger, Ryan Villopoto, was severely injured.

Like McGrath, 17 years prior, Dungey wrapped up the title two rounds early. Given Lawrence’s performance-so-far on a 450, he’s on pace for a similar early title chase conclusion; Since May 2023, when he moved full-time to the 450 class, he’s won 18 of 24 overalls (75%). And if we’re counting straight gate drops (MX motos, SMX moto main events and individual Triple Crown races), Lawrence has won 32 of 42 (76%) and he deliberately gave away one of those SMX motos in a math problem gone sideways.

Tracking Jett Lawrence’s 450 Career

Winning is never guaranteed and you never know when (or if) that next one is coming. Eli Tomac knows that all too well right about now and 2024 is starting to feel very familiar: the defending champion has one race win and sits third in points. The guy who should have won the title the previous year still has no wins, has been off the podium more than on, and sits fourth in the standings.

Is history repeating itself?

Jett Lawrence Milestone Tracker

With seven rounds remaining, here are rookie milestones that Jett Lawrence can challenge.

• Wins: Lawrence needs 6 wins in the remaining 7 races to beat Jeremy McGrath’s 1993 rookie season win record (which stands at 10). He needs 5 wins to tie The King.
• Podiums: Already out of reach. Chad Reed earned 14 podiums in 2003. At this point, Lawrence can reach 13 if he finishes top three all the way through SLC.
• Championship: Jeremy McGrath (1993) & Ryan Dungey (2010) are the only two rookies to win the championship.
• Points: Jett needs to avg. 22 points per race to beat Ryan Dungey’s rookie record of 363 points (Dungey had 17 rounds, like today). To do that specifically, he could finish second at each of the remaining seven rounds.
• Single Season: If Lawrence (gasp!) wins out, he’d rank 4th on the list for most wins all-time in a single season.

Most 450SX Single Season Wins (all-time)