2024 SMX Playoff Projections: Post Spring Creek

BIG SuperMotocross Standings movement coming out of Spring Creek in both classes. The cutoff line held steady in the 450 class but went up significantly in the 250 class.

If you need a SuperMotocross 411 refresher, scroll to the bottom. Otherwise, we’re jumping in to look forward at who’s going to make the top 20 and top 30 combined in Supercross and Pro Motocross points.

450 SMX Projections

• We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 153 points, which is steady from last week.
• There are 14 riders that have already scored more than the 153 points and we believe have likely secured a top 20 playoff berth – J Lawrence, Sexton, H Lawrence, Cooper, Anderson, Plessinger, Barcia, Stewart, Ferrandis, Webb, Tomac, McElrath, Roczen and now Craig (secured at Spring Creek).

Key Rider Projections

• Chase Sexton is on pace to clinch the top seed at Unadilla. He’s currently +56 points ahead of Jett Lawrence and +113 ahead of Hunter Lawrence.
• Freddie Noren is just 4 points shy of securing a likely top 20 spot (based on the 153 point projected cutoff) and should easily do so this coming weekend in Washougal.

• Phil Nicoletti had a season best 9-8 for 8th overall at Spring Creek and moved +6 positions in the standings. He’s now positioned to secure a spot (again, based on the 153 point projected cutoff) at Unadilla. We spoke to him at RedBud and he’s very well aware that the ZERO seeding points he had in 2023 ultimately cost him $40K!
• Speaking of zero points, Grant Harlan scored nothing at Spring Creek. We’d previously expected he’d have enough points to secure a spot after Budds Creek but now believe it’ll come down to the last round.

450SMX PROJECTED Standings

450 Riders to Watch – The Last 4 Spots

• Dean Wilson (108 pts) hurt his wrist in a practice crash prior to RedBud and then cased LaRocco’s Leap which kept him sidelined. We heard from him Monday – wrist is sore but he’s gonna give it a go for Washougal and the last two rounds.
• Grant Harlan (105 pts) dropped two positions in the SMX Rankings at Spring Creek – Phil Nicoletti and Kyle Chisholm passed him. He’s now ranked 20th and we’ve got him finishing 18th… but there can’t be anymore zero point weekends.
• Marshal Weltin (94 pts) will need more RedBud (17-14 for 14th overall) finishes jump into the top 20. He’s currently 23rd and projected to finish 19th.

Autographed Artwork from We Went Fast

• Justin Hill (106 pts) is currently 19th and projected to finish 20th based on the intel he’ll race the last 4 rounds of Pro Motocross. There’s very little room for error though with 10 other riders (arguably) in contention for 4 spots.
• Garrett Marchbanks (50 pts) was not feeling well last week and went 40-18 for a mere 4 points. That cost him 21 points in our projections and he goes from 18th to 21st in the projected standings.
• Colt Nichols (62 pts) may only be ranked 26th, but he’s signed with HEP Suzuki and will likely return to action at either Washougal or Unadilla. He went 11-11 and scored 20 points at Washougal 2023. If he can replicate that the last 4 rounds he’d finish with 142 pts and 22nd in the standings.
• You can never count Kyle Chisholm (107 pts) out and he finished a season best 12-16 for 13th overall last weekend at Spring Creek.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…

• Harri Kullas (99 pts) has finished 9th overall the past three weekends and he’s confirmed in for at least Washougal. He’s still trying to figure out how to race the rest of the season and said he desperately needs a fresh motorcycle heading into the final races.
• Romain Pape (61 pts) finished a season best 11-17 for 14th overall at Spring Creek.
• With a breakout moto or two, Cullin Park has the potential to challenge for that final position but it’ll likely require other riders to falter.
• Derek Kelley (51 pts) finished a season best 11th in the second moto at Spring Creek. That’s reason to believe he’s still got a chance!

Seven riders have an automatic LCQ Bid = Jett Lawrence, Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, Aaron Plessinger, and Hunter Lawrence

The next few rounds will be pivotal. Those that stay in contention with good, consistent motos will make for an interesting battle in the final few rounds. With 11 450 riders in contention for the last four spots in the top 20, the fans are going to be treated to some great racing at the final rounds of Pro Motocross.

250 SMX Projections

• We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 171 points. This is up +22 points from pre-Spring Creek, mostly because of Dilan Schwartz’s career best day. Dilan is in position for the 20th spot and projected to be +47 points more than 21st position
• There are 18 riders that have scored enough points to secured a top 20 playoff berth – Deegan, Vialle, Kitchen, Shimoda, Hymas, Swoll, Brown, Smith, Beaumer, DiFrancesco, Bennick, Thrasher, Hampshire, Schock, Masterpool, Anstie and, new after Spring Creek, Romano and Cochran.

Key Rider Projections

• Joey Savatgy is likely to secure the 19th spot at Washougal.
• Dilan Schwartz somehow turned 10-6 Spring Creek motos into a career best overall 5th! (previous best was two 7th overalls in 2021). He is now likely to lock in the 20th spot at Unadilla.

250SMX PROJECTED Standings

Longshots

• Talon Hawkins (25th), Jett Reynolds (31st) and Mark Fineis (33rd) could contend for the 20th spot but need some luck.

These 12 riders have an automatic LCQ Bid: RJ Hampshire, Jordon Smith, Nate Thrasher, Levi Kitchen, Austin Forkner, Haiden Deegan, Tom Vialle, Cameron McAdoo, Max Anstie, Jo Shimoda, Chance Hymas, and Ty Masterpool.

SuperMotocross 411

• Combined Supercross and Pro Motocross points determine how the SMX Playoff seeding points are allocated. 1st gets 25 points, 2nd gets 22 points, and so forth using the same points structure.
  • The 250 supercross region with 1 extra round has to drop their 10th/worst round finish.
• Anyone that wins a Supercross main event or Pro Motocross moto gets an automatic bid into the LCQ. Keep in mind, they have to race the LCQ every single round of the playoffs to earn a spot in the motos.
• The top 20 are automatically given a gate for every round. Note, if a rider in the top 20 is injured or opts out of the SMX Playoffs, that opens one more transfer spot in the LCQ but does not give the 21st rider an automatic spot in the motos.
• Top 21-30 get a spot on the LCQ gate and have to finish 1st or 2nd to earn a spot in the motos. Keep in mind there will be invitations for the LCQ if riders are injured or opt-out of the SMX Playoffs.