SHOP RAG

Shop Rag: 2024 Budds Creek Pro Motocross Research

August 13, 2024

By Brett Smith

Labeled video capture of Doug Henry in the air during his 1995 Budds Creek flight.

Welcome to Budds Creek!

Since 1973, Budds Creek Motocross Park has been a premier Mid-Atlantic motocross destination, home of rich “chocolate cake” soil. Carved into a valley right off Budds Creek Road deep in southern Maryland, the scenic course features hillside viewing for the fans and elevation changes for the riders.

Promoter/operator, Jonathan Beasley first held a Pro Motocross in 1989, USGPs in the 1990s and, in 2007 he realized his lifelong dream of hosting the Motocross of Nations. The track features deep ruts, heavy soil and steep hairpin turns.

The facility is now operated by Jonathan’s son Ezra, the next generation of Beasleys.

For more history and Budds Creek all-time leaderboards, winners, and historical race results…

BUDDS CREEK HISTORY

And if you’re curious about why there is a track obstacle named “Henry Hill”, read (or listen to) “Doug Henry’s 2.8 Seconds to Legend”. It’s been (gulp) 29 years since this infamous crash and this story details what (and how) it happened.

DOUG HENRY’S 2.8 SECONDS TO LEGEND

Tap the play button to listen to the latest We Went Fast episode.

Haiden Deegan (#38) escaped the Unadilla danger that struck Tom Vialle (#16) and Chance Hymas (#48) and he goes to Budds Creek with a 70 point lead. Photo: Octopi

Where Champions are Crowned

There’s a very good chance that Haiden Deegan does something this weekend that hasn’t happened at Budds Creek since 2018 (a 250MX champ crowned). And if Chase Sexton can gain +22 points on Hunter Lawrence it’d be the first time double champions have been crowned at Budds since 2016.

Since 1989, Budds Creek has bounced around the calendar; its round has been held in October, June, July and, since 2016, the venue has held down a steady date in late August with the second to last round of the Pro Motocross series.

Aaron Plessinger was the most recent 250MX rider to be crowned at Budds Creek (2018)

Eight Pro Motocross champions have been crowned at Budds Creek. BOTH champions have been crowned here twice (2016 and 1992).

The first champions crowned at Budds Creek were Mike Kiedrowski (500) and Jeff Emig (125) in 1992 when the venue was the final round of the 125/500 championships. Eli Tomac (2019) was the most recent, when he won his 3rd 450 Pro Motocross championship.

Here are the champions crowned at Budds Creek…

250/450 Titles Clinched at Budds

2009: Chad Reed. The 10th of 12 rounds, Budds Creek held a late August date for the first time in its history and Reed entered with an 82 point lead over Andrew Short. Reed went 2-1 and clinched with 2 rounds still left in the series. Notably, he finished only 8th and 10th overall in those last two rounds after not finishing worse than 4th overall prior to clinching.

Ken Roczen wins the 2016 450MX title — Ken Roczen after winning the 2016 Pro Motocross Championship at Budds Creek. Photo: Garth Milan

2016: Ken Roczen. In a dominating season, he entered Budds Creek with a 63 point lead over Eli Tomac, went 1-1, and clinched the title with one round to go. It was one of the most dominating seasons in premier class Pro Motocross history – he won 20 of 24 motos (6th most all-time) and 9 of 12 overalls. He missed just 1 moto podium (Glen Helen M2 4th) the entire season!
2019: Eli Tomac. Eli clinched his 3rd straight premier class title a round early at Budds in 2019. He came in with a 41 point lead and left with the title after going 1-1. Ken Roczen went 2-7 for 4th overall. Tomac clinched with a 50 point lead over Marvin Musquin who temporarily moved into 2nd place in the standings that day.

125/250 Titles Clinched at Budds

2016: Cooper Webb clinched after going 6-3 for 5th overall. It was only the second time he’d finished off the overall podium all season. He entered Budds with an 81 point lead over Alex Martin and left with a 73 point lead and just one round remaining.

Cooper Webb, Budds Creek, 2016 — Cooper Webb after clinching the 2016 250 Pro Motocross Championship at Budds Creek. Photo: We Went Fast

2017: Zach Osborne. Zacho won his first of two Pro Motocross titles. It was a true first circle story because Budds Creek was the track where he debuted in 2006 (and famously faded while running up front). In 2017, he went 8-1 for 2nd overall and clinched the title over Jeremy Martin (-63 points) and Joey Savatgy (-89 points).
2018 Aaron Plessinger. AP7 entered Budds with a 77 point lead having won 5 overalls and 8 of 20 motos. He went 1-11 for 3rd overall and clinched the title with an 83 point lead over Alex Martin.
1992: Jeff Emig. One of the greatest meltdowns in motocross history was frozen in time on a rainy October day in 1992 when Emig ended Mike LaRocco’s suffering. They entered the final round separated by just one point and, unfortunately for LaRocco, his bad luck from the previous race followed him to Maryland. Read more about this race in the We Went Fast Budds Creek history page.

Jeff Emig collecting the #1 plate after winning the 1992 125MX championship.

500 Titles Clinched at Budds

1992: Mike Kiedrowski. Jeff Stanton went 1-1 for 1st overall at the final round at Budds Creek, but that simply wasn’t enough. Kiedrowski won 2 of the 5 overalls and 5 of 10 motos to win the title over Stanton by 3 points. MX Kied never finished off the podium the entire season.

Now the question, can and will Haiden Deegan add his name to the list or riders who have clinched a title at Budds Creek?!

Deegan Clinch Scenarios

Haiden Deegan’s been the best in class all season highlighted by moto podiums in 16 of 18 rounds! That said, there are still two other riders in contention with two rounds remaining, Levi Kitchen (-70 pts), and Tom Vialle (-81 pts).

250 Pro Motocross Standings

The simplest path for Haiden to secure the title is to score 30 points (7th place in both motos). If he scores 30 points and Levi Kitchen goes 1-1 for 1st overall, he wins his 1st career Pro Motocross title and 2nd professional title (250 SMX 2023). We race the races for a reason, but considering his worst moto finish is a 6th (Rd 6 RedBud M2), this seems like a near 100% guarantee.

Assuming Haiden doesn’t take the simple route (he’s got motivation – see SMX Standings below) and goes strong like he’s done all year, here’s how he can clinch it after the first moto.

Haiden Deegan, head down at the 2024 Unadilla Pro Motocross. Photo: Octopi

Clinch after M1

The magic number is a +75 point lead over his competition. That means he needs to score 5 more points than Levi Kitchen while not losing more than 11 points to Tom Vialle. Here’s how he can do that…

Win the moto (25 pts) and have Levi Kitchen finish 3rd (20 pts) or worse.
Here’s all the key scenarios for finishing anywhere in the top 10…

For Tom Vialle to stay in the hunt beyond the first moto, he needs to finish +6 points ahead of Haiden Deegan . That means Tom wins the moto and Haiden finishes 4th or worse. Possible but unlikely considering Haiden’s had only 2 motos where he’s finished 4th or worse this season.

After seeing dudes going down today pretty hard, I’m like, ‘I have such a big points lead, this is a solid day for me, 1-2 on the day.’ Great ride by Levi. He sprinted hard at the beginning and that was a good ride on him.
–Haiden Deegan on the Unadilla podium

Let’s not forget that he’s also got a chance at securing the top seed in the 2024 SuperMotocross standings. This will lock in 25 points and a +3 point advantage over his competition entering the SMX World Championships Finals.

250 SuperMotocross Standings

Haiden needs to score 7 points more than Levi Kitchen at Budds Creek and not lose 27 or more to Tom Vialle and he’ll clinch that top spot. With the pressure of his first Pro Motocross title looming, it’ll be interesting to see what approach Haiden Deegan takes – race hard as he’s done all year or ride safe to secure the Pro Motocross title.

FAST FACT: Two Years, Only Two Racers Have Won

Chase Sexton’s seven moto win streak may have been broken at Unadilla this past weekend, but he’s still 1 of 2 racers to have won an overall since the beginning of the 2023 season. That’s right, in the last 20 rounds of 450 Pro Motocross, only Jett Lawrence (15) and Chase Sexton (5) have won an overall

At Unadilla, Chase Sexton locked up his fourth straight Pro Motocross win. Photo: Garth Milan

450 Pro Motocross Winners, Last 5 Seasons

After Jett Lawrence’s perfect 2023 season, he won the first 4 of 5 overalls before dropping out with the thumb injury. In an earlier post, we analyzed his first 15 450MX starts, of which he won 14.

The door seemed open for a whole handful of opportunists but Chase Sexton has firmly taken charge. He’s won 4 straight.

Jett rips a tear off (High Point 2024) — Jett Lawrence wins at the 2024 High Point Pro Motocross. Photo: Garth Milan

Here’s a head scratcher: Hunter Lawrence has led more laps than Chase Sexton (70 to 68) and has led in eight motos (Sexton has led in 11). H. Lawrence has two moto wins and has yet to win a 450MX overall. Sexton has 10 moto wins and 5 overall victories.

The Rookie vs. The Veteran

Sexton has come from behind to beat Hunter in 5 motos. Jett Lawrence also did that to his brother once (Thunder Valley moto 2).

Bad news: Hunter isn’t finishing the job. Good news, he’s got the starts and is getting experience leading the best in the world.

Unadilla Delivered Bests

We charted the checkered past of Unadilla in last week’s preview, but for many this year, Unadilla was highlighted by a career or season best.

450 Bests

Chase Sexton now leads the 450 championship by over a full moto’s worth of points and has 10 moto wins and 5 overall wins. His previous best season was 2022 with 8 moto wins and 4 overalls.
Dylan Ferrandis got his first moto podium (3rd in M2). He went 6-3 for 4th overall, tying his season best overall. He was on the moto podium in 16 of 22 motos in 2023 (2nd most behind champion Jett Lawrence)!
Grant Harlan went 11-10 for 10th overall – his first top 10 overall of the season and most importantly he went from 20th to 17th in the SMX Standings.

Garrett Marchbanks at the 2024 Unadilla Pro Motocross. Photo: Octopi

250 Bests

Garrett Marchbanks’ return to Pro Circuit Kawasaki was very solid. His 5-5 for 4th overall was a career best (previous best was High Point 2021: 10-4 for 5th) and he moved into 20th position in the SMX Standings.
Jalek Swoll got Triumph’s first ever podium and his best finish of 2024 with a 6-4 for 3rd overall.
Lux Turner (rookie, 2022 Scouting grad, and 2023 SX Futures grad) had a season/career best 17-16 for 15th overall. The AEO Powersports KTM rider got his first top 15 overall and sits 23rd in the standings.

But Unadilla did bite a few: Chance Hymas has a big burn on his harm from a massive M1 crash (while leading) and Jo Shimoda (broken collarbone) and Casey Cochran both left the second moto on the Alpinestars Medic crew. Dilan Schwartz (battling for the final SMX top 20 position had a M.2 DNF).

Ryan Dungey is (so far) the only 450 rider to ever switch TO KTM and win a Pro Motocross title in the first year. Photo: Frank Hoppen

Switched & Won

Sometimes the grass really is greener on the other side. Or orange, if you’re Chase Sexton. If Sexton clinches this championship, he’d be the 10th rider in 250/450 history to win the title after switching from another brand and only the second rider to LEAVE Honda and win (Ricky Carmichael Honda to Suzuki, 2005)

Most recently it was Eli Tomac who left Kawasaki in 2021 and won on the Yamaha YZ450F in 2022. Before that, we have to go all the way back to 2012, when Ryan Dungey gave KTM its first 450MX title in his first try after leaving Suzuki.

All told, a rider has switched brands and gone on to win the championship.In 16 of 119 possible seasons (all classes).

250/450 Class

2022 Eli Tomac: Yamaha from Kawasaki.
2012 Ryan Dungey: KTM from Suzuki
2009 Chad Reed: Suzuki from did not ride Pro MX in 2008.
2007 Grant Langston (rookie): Yamaha from Kawasaki.
2005 Ricky Carmichael: Suzuki from Honda.
2002 Ricky Carmichael: Honda from Kawasaki.
1996 Jeff Emig: Kawasaki from Yamaha.
1989 Jeff Stanton: Honda from Yamaha.
1986 Ricky Johnson: Honda from Yamaha.

Levi Kitchen (Yamaha to Kawasaki for 2024) needs miracles in the 250MX class to make up the 70 points he’s behind Haiden Deegan. The last time a non-rookie 125/250 rider switched brands and won the title 125 two strokes were the only option in this class. Keep in mind, champions rarely spend longer than 3-4 years in the class.

Doug Henry at the 1993 Southwick Pro Motocross. Doug switched to Honda and won the 125 Pro MX title. Photo: Fran Kuhn

125/250 Class

1993 Doug Henry: Honda from Yamaha.
1990 Mike Kiedrowski: Kawasaki from Honda.
1989 Guy Cooper: Suzuki from Honda.
1988 George Holland: Honda from Suzuki.
1986 Micky Dymond: Honda from Husqvarna (Dymond rode big bikes for HSQ)

Let’s not forget about the big bore boys…

500 Class

1982 Darrell Schultz: Honda from Suzuki.
1975 Jim Wienert: Yamaha from Kawasaki.

Eli’s Return

With 2 rounds remaining in the Pro Motocross championship, All-Time Eli Tomac returns to action in preparation for the SuperMotocross World Championship Finals.

Eli Tomac after winning the 2024 St. Louis Supercross. Photo: Octopi

For Eli Tomac, there’s no upside or downside in the SMX championship standings. He’s 68 points back of Cooper Webb and 28 points ahead of Ken Roczen, so this is very clearly a chance to get get drops and shake off the cobwebs after a thumb injury in Supercross.

Eli Tomac: 2024 SX Season Stats

Potential Milestones:

Eli Tomac currently ranks 5th in all-time 250/450 MX points with 3,785. He needs just 17 points to pass John Dowd (3,802 points) for 4th all-time.
He’s currently tied with Rick Johnson and Ryan Dungey for 2nd all-time moto wins with 68.
He’s 1 overall win behind Rick Johnson (33) for 3rd all-time.

Jett Lawrence’s SMX Scenarios

Jett will enter the Finals down 9 points to Chase Sexton (and ahead of Cooper Webb by 4, Eli Tomac by 5, and Ken Roczen by 7). It’s not insurmountable, but imagine the following scenario…

–> Chase Sexton gets 2nd at Charlotte, wins Dallas, and is 2nd in Vegas

In this scenario, Chase Sexton wins the $1 million dollars with 163 points (vs. Jetts 160) and is your 2024 SuperMotocross Champion. The key is that Sexton has to win the double points paying round.

To help make the point about how important it is to win certain rounds, imagine this scenario…

–> Chase Sexton wins Charlotte, 2nd at Dallas, and 2nd in Vegas

In this scenario where we simply switch Chase winning the first single points paying race instead of the second double points paying race, Jett Lawrence is your repeat 2024 SuperMotocross Champion and takes home $1 million dollars.

These are pretty simple scenarios and who else believes that Hunter Lawrence, Aaron Plessinger, Jason Anderson, Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, and more are going to be get into the mix!?

SMX Playoff Update

Here’s where we stand with two races to go.

If you need a SuperMotocross 411 refresher, scroll to the bottom. Otherwise, we’re jumping in to look forward at who’s going to make the top 20 and top 30 combined in Supercross and Pro Motocross points.

Chase Sexton pulled his first MX holeshot of 2024 and also locked up the #1 SMX seed. Photo: Garth Milan

450 SMX Projections

We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 149 points.
There are 15 riders that have already scored more than the 149 points and we believe have secured a top 20 playoff berth – J. Lawrence, Sexton, H. Lawrence, Cooper, Anderson, Plessinger, Barcia, Stewart, Ferrandis, Webb, Tomac, McElrath, Roczen, Craig, and Noren.
Chase Sexton has clinched the top SMX seed as of last weekend. Leaving Unadilla he’s +128 points ahead of points ahead of Hunter Lawrence with just 4 motos and 100 points left on the table.

Jett’s Nosedive Has Started

As mentioned last week, Jett Lawrence will drop a few positions in the SMX standings and it started this past week – he dropped from 2nd to 4th and by the end of the Pro Motocross season he’ll land in 6th position – 9 points behind Chase Sexton.

Who wouldn’t want a hug from uncle Phil? Photo: Alec Gaut

6 Riders, 5 Positions

There are currently 6 riders separated by 7 points – each has a chance to secure the 16th to 20th transfer positions.

Phil Nicoletti (16th, 141 points) is at the top of this pack and delivered just enough at Unadilla (13-15 for 13th overall) to maintain his 16th place.
Grant Harlan (17th, +3 pos, 141 points) had a season first top 10 overall (11-10) and jumped 3 positions in the standings.

Season best day for Grant Harlan: 10th overall at Unadilla Photo: Alec Gaut

Harri Kullas (18th, -1 pos, 137 points) dropped one position at Unadilla but is still on path to secure a top 20 position.
Marshal Weltin (19th, +2 pos, 126 points) had a tough go at Unadilla with a crash in M2 due to a front flat tire. He still moved up 2 positions passing Kyle Chisholm and the ‘inactive’ Dean Wilson.

Rough day for Kyle Chisholm at Unadilla. He scored just 5 points and lost positions in the SMX standings. Photo: Alec Gaut

Kyle Chisholm (20th, -2 pos, 125 points) only scored 5 points in Unadilla (22-17 for 19th) and dropped 2 positions.
Dean Wilson (21st, 119 points) missed Unadilla (but won an Arenacross in Brazil) and dropped 2 positions. He is now on the outside looking in! Good news is both Weltin and Chisholm only scored points in one moto at Unadilla and he’s just 6 and 7 points from 19th and 20th position.

Note that Justin Hill (22nd, 106 points) is still in the picture but is not expected to race the final 2 rounds of Pro Motocross

Seven riders have an automatic LCQ Bid = Jett Lawrence, Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, Aaron Plessinger, and Hunter Lawrence

The next few rounds will be pivotal. Those that stay in contention with good, consistent motos will make for an interesting battle in the final few rounds. With 6 450 riders battling for 5 spots in the top 20, the fans are going to be treated to some great racing at the final rounds of Pro Motocross.

Garrett Marchbanks’s 34 points at Unadilla propelled him into the top 20 in 250SMX Photo Alec Gaut

250 SMX Projections

We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 169 points.
Based on projections, 19 of the top 20 spots have been secured – Deegan, Vialle, Kitchen, Shimoda, Hymas, Swoll, Brown, Smith, Beaumer, DiFrancesco, Bennick, Thrasher, Hampshire, Schock, Masterpool, Anstie, Romano, Cochran, and Joey Savatgy.

1 Final Transfer Position, 3 Riders

Nate Thrasher (18th, 169 pts) has been out with a broken collarbone since round 3, but is expected to make a return at Ironman. He’s been back on the bike for 2 weeks. While it appears he’s secured a top 20 spot, Marchbanks is likely to pass him and Schwartz is within reach. Worth watching closely!
Garrett Marchbanks (20th, 121 pts) but in a career best day (see above) with 5-5 for 4th overall at Unadilla. Assuming that trend continues, he’ll finish the season 19th in the SuperMotocross standings. Amazing turn of fortune and potential story here if he performs well in the SMX World Championship Finals!

Dilan Schwartz scored just 8 points at Unadilla and has now been bumped back to 21st. Photo Alec Gaut

Dilan Schwartz (20th, 125 pts) had a tough go at Unadilla with 14-35 moto finishes for 20th overall. He needs to have 4 great moto finishes to end the season for any chance of making the top 20.

PROJECTED 250SMX Rankings

These 12 riders have an automatic LCQ Bid: RJ Hampshire, Jordon Smith, Nate Thrasher, Levi Kitchen, Austin Forkner, Haiden Deegan, Tom Vialle, Cameron McAdoo, Max Anstie, Jo Shimoda, Chance Hymas, and Ty Masterpool

SuperMotocross 411

Combined Supercross and Pro Motocross points determine how the SMX Playoff seeding points are allocated. 1st gets 25 points, 2nd gets 22 points, and so forth using the same points structure.
- The 250 supercross region with 1 extra round has to drop their 10th/worst round finish.
Anyone that wins a Supercross main event or Pro Motocross moto gets an automatic bid into the LCQ. Keep in mind, they have to race the LCQ every single round of the playoffs to earn a spot in the motos.
The top 20 are automatically given a gate for every round. Note, if a rider in the top 20 is injured or opts out of the SMX Playoffs, that opens one more transfer spot in the LCQ but does not give the 21st rider an automatic spot in the motos.
Top 21-30 get a spot on the LCQ gate and have to finish 1st or 2nd to earn a spot in the motos. Keep in mind there will be invitations for the LCQ if riders are injured or opt-out of the SMX Playoffs.

James Stewart, 2003

Shoutout to our own James Stewart for making Henry Hill famous for a different reason.