What Really Happened in Seattle?

Chase Sexton was faster than Cooper Webb on 15 of 25 timed laps, had an average lap time 0.1 seconds quicker, and had a staggering 9 second advantage in just one rhythm section! Sounds like a winning formula, right?

Wrong. Against a competitor like Webb, no gap under three seconds is safe. And on Lap 23, with only a 1.5-second lead, Sexton found himself exactly where Webb wanted him.

Lap by Lap: Sexton vs. Webb @ Seattle SX

Lap 23, for what it is worth, was chaos. Both riders made the same mistake in the same sector. But Webb, true to form, recovered faster, snatched the lead, and left Sexton unable to retaliate.

Segment Comparison: Sexton vs. Webb @ Seattle SX

Despite the statistical advantage, Sexton’s speed advantage was in just two sectors: the whoops (S2) and the long rhythm lane (S5). While his whoop gains were minimal in comparison, his dominance in S5 was a glaring 9 second advantage. But there was a catch. That rhythm section was only an asset when Sexton executed his line cleanly; a line only he could execute.

On three of the final four laps, he failed to do so, bleeding upwards of 3 seconds each time. With no real gains elsewhere, and actually losing time in most sectors, Webb clinched yet another razor-thin victory (his 12th with a sub-1-second margin).

It’s hard to tell, is the championship fight heating up, or has Webb put it on ice?

A Razor Thin Margin

Speaking of razor-thin wins, Webb has mastered the craft. And his favorite victims? Ken Roczen and Sexton have finished second to Webb in a combined 9 of his 12 sub-1-second race finishes.

Wins* vs. Win Margins

*This chart includes individual Triple Crown Race Wins.

Webb now boasts 12 race wins (including Triple Crown mains) with a margin under a second. Even crazier? Only twice has he won by more than five seconds. We get into this a bit deeper in the 2025 Foxborough Supercross Research.

Dominance by Davies

In the first edition of What Really Happened, I argued that Cole Davies was off to a better rookie-season start than Jett Lawrence. Now, with a race win in his debut Supercross season, a feat Lawrence never achieved, the comparison grows even stronger. But it is not that Davies won, it’s how he won. He dominated.

Rarely do we see a rookie decimate a field of riders outside of names (think, Eli Tomac or James Stewart). Yet, that’s exactly what Davies did in Seattle.

Segment Comparison: Davies @ Seattle SX

Against Garrett Marchbanks (2nd) and Haiden Deegan (3rd), Davies was on another level. His average lap time was 0.36 seconds faster than both. If that’s not impressive enough:

• His worst lap still ranked fifth fastest.
• He set the fastest lap 8 times.
• He set the second fastest lap an additional 6 times.
• Fun fact: Timing data suggests he blitzed the whoops in all but two laps he was on the track: his misses were in qualifying 2 and the final lap of the main event.

The Kiwi has gone from the awkward rookie to a serious threat in a matter of months. With this level of momentum the sky’s the limit.