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PREVIEW

2025 Indianapolis Preview

By Brett Smith

Round 9: Indy!

The first Supercross ever held in the crossroads of America was round 9 of 1992. From McGrath’s domination (6 wins!) to Mike LaRocco’s final Supercross win (2004), Indy has been a strong Midwestern Supercross battleground.

  • This will be the 35th running of the Indianapolis Supercross. Seventeen were held in the old Hoosier/RCA Dome and 17 in Lucas Oil Stadium.
  • Indy’s race has been as early as round 4 and as late as round 15. This weekend will be round 9, the 8th time it has landed there, which is where it most often falls.
  • East/West Showdown weekend; the second time Indianapolis has hosted one.
  • Ken Roczen is STRONG here. Four wins in eight starts. Much more on Kickstart Kenny below.

Much more on the Indianapolis Supercross history page below.

INDIANAPOLIS RESULTS HISTORY

Let’s Go For 7

Ken Roczen becoming the season’s 6th different winner is mildly noteworthy; we’ve been here 12 times now.

What’s key is how early it has happened.

Nine rounds remain to reach a benchmark that hasn’t happened since Jeremy McGrath rode a Suzuki and 4 strokes were still novelties: 7 different winners in a single season.

In 1997 it took until round 10 to get six winners. Roczen’s Daytona victory is the earliest in the season we’ve seen 6 winners since 1985 (see chart below)

Earliest to 6 winners

Column 1 shows which round the 6th winner happened. Column 3 shows the season’s final total of winners.

Only two seasons in Supercross history have had more than six winners. Here are those winners along with where we are in 2025. (#) denotes the number of total season wins for that rider.

Comparing 2025 with 1985 and 1997

KEN-dianapolis

Ken Roczen has four wins in his eight Indianapolis 450SX starts. Just as impressive, he’s led laps in 6 of those 8 mains for a total of 117 laps led in Lucas Oil Stadium.

  • This Indy magic is relatively recent; Roczen’s first Indy start was back in 2014 but he didn’t win here until 2021, when he tripled up, sweeping the residency.
  • 2022: Roczen didn’t race Indy. He was out of the series after Daytona
  • 2023: Roczen wins again and carries his kickstarter to the podium.
  • 2024: goes 2-2-3 in a Triple Crown for 2nd overall but was in the hunt all three Race. Led laps in all three races (22 total) but loses to Jett Lawrence who sweeps (and leads 26 laps)
Ken Roczen 450SX Career at Indy

*2024 was a Triple Crown.

Delayed Magic

In Roczen’s 2014 rookie season, Indianapolis was a disaster. He entered the race (round 9) -9 in points to series leader, Ryan Villopoto. He and RV tangled entering the first turn of the main event and both went down.

While running 8th on lap 13, Roczen crashed again and exited the race. Roczen dropped to 3rd in points (-26) behind Villopoto.

Has Kenny Fixed the Post Daytona Blues?

Since 2014, when Roczen moved to the 450 class full-time, he’s averaged a better finish before* Daytona than after Daytona.

Roczen Before/After Daytona

*NOTE: This excludes the seasons where he was out before the series reached Daytona (2015, 2017, 2018)

More Roczen Tid Bits
  • He’s now won at least one race for 6 straight seasons. That ties him for 7th on the list of consecutive winning seasons (Eli Tomac leads with 11)
  • Roczen’s Daytona win was Suzuki’s first there since 2009 (Chad Reed)
  • Roczen now adds his name to the growing list of riders who won past the age of 30. He turns 31 in April.
  • This also means that three 450SX riders aged 30+ have won in the same season for the first time in Supercross history (Tomac, M. Stewart, Roczen)

The First to Three

It’s been 10 years since the series went this deep into the season without seeing a three-time winner.

In 2015, Ryan Dungey was the first to three when he won the Atlanta 2 Supercross (rd. 9) after Ken Roczen opened the season winning two of the first three.

Dungey caught fire and won 5 of the final 8. Roczen injured his ankle at Atlanta 1, limped through Atlanta 2 and didn’t race Daytona, Round 10.

This metric is noteworthy because the first to three is a strong indicator of who goes on to win the title.

  • In 33 of 48 championship seasons (excluding the short season years of 1974-1976), the first to 3 wins has won the championship (that’s 69%).
  • Since 2000, the first to 3 wins has won 76% of the time (19 of 25)
  • Since 2000: Just 5 riders got to three wins and did NOT win the title. David Vuillemin (2002); Ryan Villopoto (2010); James Stewart (2011); Eli Tomac (2017 & 2023); Ken Roczen (2022)

Chase Sexton and the Race Minus Metric

Chase Sexton has a Race Minus rate of 32%; in 22 of his 69 450SX starts, he’s had a net loss for positions.

And of the 22 races where he’s lost positions, 8 of them were after leading the first lap of the race.

  • Most damning for Chase is that he’s led the first lap 12 times and he’s only won 4 of those 12 races. That’s an abysmal 33% win rate when leading the first lap.
  • It’s the lowest among his active 2025 championship competitors and most telling, it’s half that of Eli Tomac’s career tally of 66%.
  • Simply said, Chase Sexton is not a lock to win, especially if he’s leading the first lap.
Race Minus Metric

250SX E/W Showdown

Get jazzed for the first 250SX E/W Showdown of the season! Round 9 is the earliest showdown since 2019 when Atlanta hosted.

Before that you’d have to go all the way back to 1996 when Rounds 8 AND 9 were Showdowns (Houston & Irving)

Indianapolis has only held one E/W Showdown: 2018.

  • Jeremy Martin won it, leading all 21 laps to beat Adam Cianciarulo.
  • Martin, however, was docked 7 championship points for doubling on a red cross flag.
Showdown Facts
  • This weekend’s event will be the 62nd E/W Showdown since 1985, when the 125 class was integrated into the series.
  • West: 34 wins
  • East: 27 wins
  • 2025 has three Showdown events. 1989-1991 and 1996 are the only other years with three Showdowns.
Showdown Winners by Brand
  • The 2024 Showdown winners: RJ Hampshire (Nashville) and Haiden Deegan at the Salt Lake City season finale.
  • The last rider to win two consecutive showdowns: Adam Cianciarulo (Las Vegas, 2018-Atlanta 2019)
  • Six different riders have won the last six Showdowns.
  • Amongst current 250SX riders, RJ Hampshire and Jordon Smith have the most Showdown starts. Hampshire could tie Mike Brown for second most all-time if he races all three this season. Smith is out for Indy.
Most 125/250SX E/W Showdown Starts

Key Milestones

450s
  • With a win, Cooper Webb ties Ricky Johnson (28) for 8th all-time on the 450SX wins list. RJ won his 28th and final SX in Miami in Feb. 1989.
  • Justin Barcia needs one more start to own 9th place on the all-time 450SX starts list. He’s tied with Jeremy McGrath at 173.
  • Ken Roczen is in a three-way tie for 7th most podiums in 450SX (75). A 76th podium would give him sole ownership of 7th over James Stewart and Kevin Windham.
250s
  • RJ Hampshire needs just 12 points to tie Nathan Ramsey for 3rd on the all-time 250SX most points scored list.
  • Austin Forkner is in a multi-way tie for 3rd on the all-time most 250SX wins (13). A 14th win would give him sole possession of 3rd.