2024 SMX Playoff Projections: After Washougal

Three rounds left to determine who makes the top 20 (and avoids the dreaded LCQs) and who gets to line up for the SMX Playoffs at all.

There was BIG movement coming out of Washougal. If you need a SuperMotocross 411 refresher, scroll to the bottom. Otherwise, we’re jumping in to look forward at who’s going to make the top 20 and top 30 combined in Supercross and Pro Motocross points.

450 SMX Projections

• PROJECTION: The new top 20 cutoff at 149 points, which is down -4 points from the previous week.
• 15 riders have already scored more than the 149 points and we believe have secured a top 20 playoff berth: J. Lawrence, Sexton, H. Lawrence, Cooper, Anderson, Plessinger, Barcia, Stewart, Ferrandis, Webb, Tomac, McElrath, Roczen, Craig, and Noren (secured at Washougal).
• Chase Sexton will likely clinch the top SMX seed at Unadilla. He’s currently +106 points ahead of Jett Lawrence, +124 points over Jason Anderson, and +128 points over Hunter Lawrence. The magic number is +100 leaving Unadilla.

The Jett is Nosediving

In the three-race final stretch of Pro Motocross, Jett Lawrence will likely tumble from second to sixth in the rankings. Why is this important? If SuperMotocross started RIGHT NOW, Jett would have earned 22 seeding points (Sexton would have 25).

Lawrence likely falls to 6th and starts the playoffs with 16 seeding points (-6 fewer points).

You can say “the points don’t matter” because of the double and triple points escalation at SMX rounds two and three. We disagree. This isn’t “Who’s Line is it Anyway?” The points do matter. The difference between first and second at the final SMX round is nine points.

Sexton will likely start the playoffs with nine more points than Jett. Still not convinced…? Haiden Deegan won the 2023 250 SMX championship by 5 points over Jo Shimoda.

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Jett’s Points Journey:

He fell to second place after RedBud but he now has third through sixth in position to overtake. The following riders are more than likely surpassing Jett at Unadilla:

• 3rd: Jason Anderson (-18)
• 4th: Hunter Lawrence (-22)

Justin Cooper is -50 behind Jett. He likely moves into 4th after Budds Creek M.1

Aaron Plessinger is -82 behind Jett. He’s averaging 34 points per round and likely bumps Jett down after the final round (Ironman).

Malcolm Stewart’s (-148 behind Jett) average of 27 points isn’t going to be enough. But if he caught fire and won six motos in a row, he’d pick up that position (and maybe more).

6 Riders, 5 Positions

There are currently 6 riders separated by 7 points – each has a chance to secure the 16th to 20th transfer positions.

• Phil Nicoletti (16th, 125 points) is at the top of this pack but a crash in moto 1 at Washougal resulted in a 34th and zero points. While this tightened the battle, he’s still in great position.
• Harri Kullas (17th, 120 points) has 5 top 10 moto finishes in the last 8 motos and is the most consistent of this crew. He’s now expected to race the last 3 rounds and we predict he finishes highest of these 7 riders come the final standings.
• Kyle Chisholm (18th, 120 points) has finished 13th overall the last two rounds (season bests) and finished inside the top 15 in 2 of 4 motos (double his previous 12 motos).

• Dean Wilson (19th, 119 points) is expected to miss Unadilla but will race the last 2 rounds of the series. This leaves the door a bit open for Harlan and Weltin to pass him in the standings. He’ll need to be strong in those final four motos.
• Grant Harlan (20th, 118 points) went 9-38 at Washougal – season best and worst moto finishes. Most important: in Moto 1, he showed his capabilities!
• Marshal Weltin (21st, 118 points) finished a season best 11-9 for 10th overall (ties career best overall finish). He’s clearly aware of what’s on the line with six motos remaining.

450SMX Rankings

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Note that Justin Hill (22nd, 106 points) is still in the picture. But we got intel that he does not intend to race the last 3 Pro Motocross rounds. He also got banged up at the Big Hill Jam.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…

• Romain Pape (25th, 71 pts) finished a season best 11-17 for 14th overall at Spring Creek.
• Derek Kelley (26th 70 pts) finished a season best 12th overall with 14-11 moto finishes at Washougal. He’s doing everything he can but it is likely too late to crack the top 20.
• Colt Nichols (29th, 62 pts) has signed with HEP Suzuki and will likely return to action at Unadilla.

Seven riders have an automatic LCQ Bid = Jett Lawrence, Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, Aaron Plessinger, and Hunter Lawrence

The next few rounds will be pivotal. Those that stay in contention with good, consistent motos will make for an interesting battle in the final few rounds. With 7 450 riders battling for 5 spots in the top 20, the fans are going to be treated to some great racing at the final rounds of Pro Motocross.

250 SMX Projections

• We’re currently projecting the top 20 cutoff at 172 points. This is up +1 point from pre-Washougal.
• There are 19 riders that have scored enough points to secure a top 20 playoff berth – Deegan, Vialle, Kitchen, Shimoda, Hymas, Swoll, Brown, Smith, Beaumer, DiFrancesco, Bennick, Thrasher, Hampshire, Schock, Masterpool, Anstie, Romano, Cochran, and after Washougal Joey Savatgy.

1 Final Transfer Position, 4 Riders

• Dilan Schwartz (20th, 125 pts) had a career best 5th in Spring Creek followed by his fifth 14th overall of the season at Washougal, enough to move him +2 positions and into the 20th and final transfer position.
• Garrett Marchbanks (21st, 121 pts) shared that he was “trying to figure out how to race the last 3 nationals” the week after Spring Creek and we got the news on July 29th he’ll be lining up aboard a Pro Circuit Kawasaki 250F. He’s got 25 career 250 starts and 10 top 10 overall finishes. His best finish was a 10-4 for 5th overall at High Point in 2021 – his only top 5 moto and overall finish.

• Talon Hawkins (23rd, 105 pts) is still in this but not with his recent performance (top 15 in just 2 of last 8 motos).
• Jett Reynolds (26th, 99 pts) finished a career best 10th overall at Washougal (13-10). While he’s -26 points behind Schwartz, he’s still got a shot at that 20th position if Schwartz falters.

250SMX Rankings

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These 12 riders have an automatic LCQ Bid: RJ Hampshire, Jordon Smith, Nate Thrasher, Levi Kitchen, Austin Forkner, Haiden Deegan, Tom Vialle, Cameron McAdoo, Max Anstie, Jo Shimoda, Chance Hymas, and Ty Masterpool

SuperMotocross 411

• Combined Supercross and Pro Motocross points determine how the SMX Playoff seeding points are allocated. 1st gets 25 points, 2nd gets 22 points, and so forth using the same points structure.
  • The 250 supercross region with 1 extra round has to drop their 10th/worst round finish.
• Anyone that wins a Supercross main event or Pro Motocross moto gets an automatic bid into the LCQ. Keep in mind, they have to race the LCQ every single round of the playoffs to earn a spot in the motos.
• The top 20 are automatically given a gate for every round. Note, if a rider in the top 20 is injured or opts out of the SMX Playoffs, that opens one more transfer spot in the LCQ but does not give the 21st rider an automatic spot in the motos.
• Top 21-30 get a spot on the LCQ gate and have to finish 1st or 2nd to earn a spot in the motos. Keep in mind there will be invitations for the LCQ if riders are injured or opt-out of the SMX Playoffs.