What Really Happened in Cleveland 2026?
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“Those first laps, [Kenny] rode it like it was dry, and he got away,” Cooper Webb said of describing Ken Roczen’s dominant performance in Race 3 of the Cleveland Triple Crown. Sure, rain soiled the party for many, but Roczen flourished.
Roczen is fast in the opening laps of any race, but he was untouchable in Cleveland’s Race 3.
First, let’s compare it to the dry. Yes, the track breaks down throughout a Triple Crown, but when comparing top lap times in Race 1 to Race 3, Ken Roczen was the closest to his dry times.
Comparing R3 Fastest Lap to R1
Not only did Roczen manage to be closest to his Race 1 time, he was the fastest rider in Race 3 by a full second. He was also the only rider to dip into the 47s, and he did it three times. When? Laps 2, 3, and 4. So there is some validity to Webb’s claim. Roczen had something the rest didn’t, and it lasted longer than just the first four laps.
Notably, Hunter Lawrence did not go down in Race 3 until Lap 11. Yet, he had the worse delta from Race 1 to Race 3 of the top-tier group. Furthermore, Lawrence was unable to get up to pace in Race 2 either. Roczen adapted to each race’s conditions, and held top pace in each (despite Lawrence narrowly edging out Roczen in Race 1 for fastest lap).
In Race 3, Roczen set the fastest lap on track in the first seven laps, and in that span he had already built a 9 second lead over Webb. From there, he simply managed the race, with the gap holding in that 8 to 9 second range for the remainder of the 12-minute + 1 lap main.
But let’s look at those first seven laps in more detail, because Roczen wasn’t just fast, he was straight up dancing around the competition. In the 47 timed segments through the first seven laps:
- Ken Roczen was fastest 17 times (36%)
- Cooper Webb 2 times (4.3%)
- Chase Sexton 3 times (6.4%)
- Justin Cooper and Hunter Lawrence 1 time each (2.1%)
And in some segments, Roczen was completely untouchable.
Segment 7: Start Straight to Finish
Segment 7 accounted for approximately 22% of the lap, and Ken Roczen was fastest in it 100% of the time through the first seven laps.
Naturally, Roczen was also fastest in that sector over the entire race, even factoring in the wheelie he did on his celebration lap.
R3 S7: Average Time and Ranks
Key Takeaway: 22% of the track accounted for 50% of Roczen’s advantage over Webb. It was arguably the least treacherous section, but maybe the one where traction mattered most.
Roczen’s Total Advantage
And Roczen didn’t just have Webb, or the rest of the field covered in Segment 7, he had the advantage practically everywhere. In those opening seven laps, Roczen was fastest in S2 (Rhythm 1) on 66% of passes and S6 (Whoops) on 43%. In fact, the only track segment he didn’t manage to set the fastest time at least once was S3 (Rhythm 2).
But over the course of the entire race, Webb only truly had Roczen’s number in S5 (Rhythm 4).
Roczen vs. Webb Total Time Advantage in Race 3
The Championship Picture
Roczen’s momentum is building right when it matters most, and with rain in the forecast again for Philadelphia this weekend, the proven mud rider could take his first points lead of the season at Round 15.
And the wet conditions proved difficult for Lawrence. The points leader had terrible starts in Race 2 and Race 3, with lap one positions of 7th and 9th, respectively. Both are some of his worst of the season. But more importantly, Lawrence was unable to find pace in either race.
When comparing head to head lap times, Lawrence outpaced Roczen on 12 of 17 laps in Race 1. He managed that same feat only three times in Race 2, and twice in Race 3.
Roczen vs. Lawrence Laptime Advantage Head-to-Head
Yes, it is not a perfect apples to apples comparison. But in the big picture, Roczen was able to find speed and traction when it mattered most, especially in Race 2 and 3. Look at Race 2 for example. Off the holeshot, Roczen was 6th to Lawrence’s 9th. By the end, they had both gained four positions. The difference was in how they got there.
Roczen had the speed to run down Justin Cooper if he had more time, cutting 4 seconds off Cooper’s pace in the final 3 laps. Lawrence, meanwhile, was stuck in no man’s land, 6 seconds behind Webb and 3 seconds clear of Malcolm Stewart.
If rain comes to Philly, we know Roczen will adapt. The question is, will Lawrence?