What Really Happened in Anaheim 1?

Let’s get this out of the way early this year, because you’re going to hear about it a lot: starts matter, and they’re becoming more important. They’re a key metric in our Fast Power Index (FPI), and A1 proved just how critical a good start is in today’s racing environment.

Starting position here refers to the entire opening lap, from gate drop to crossing the finish for the first time. Those first 50 seconds, before a full lap is even completed, seal the fate for a lot of riders.

Top 10: 250s Start, Finish, and Lap Time Ranks

With Haiden Deegan starting 12th and Levi Kitchen in an abysmal 20th, their chances at a win, or even a podium, were practically zero within the first minute of the race. Even in the 250 class, even when you’re a heavily favored championship contender like Deegan or Kitchen, you’re still nearly doomed. Check this out:

• Deegan averaged the 2nd-fastest lap over the entire race, half a second per lap quicker than Ryder DiFrancesco. Yet, in a 15-minute plus one-lap main event, it still wasn’t enough.
• Kitchen is a similar story: 5th-fastest average lap time, 2nd-fastest overall lap, only good enough for 6th overall.

And if the point isn’t clear enough already, outside of Deegan and Kitchen, no rider in the Top 10 finished more than 4 positions from where they started. And remember, Mcadoo crashed out while running 5th, gifting everyone behind him +1 position.

Top 10: 450s Start, Finish, and Lap Time Ranks

In 450SX, starts are even more critical. Look at Justin Cooper; he was the 3rd-fastest rider on track by average lap time, and that only translated to 6th place after starting 12th.

Also consider position changes. Outside of Cooper and Plessinger, no rider in the Top 10 moved more than 2 spots all race. If you don’t start up front you’re not going to make up significant ground unless you have exceptional speed

Now lets look at riders who benefitted from good starts – Hunter Lawrence and Jorge Prado. Neither lit up the lap-time charts, but strong starts put them in position to manage solid races. Prado may still be adapting to Supercross, but if he keeps delivering his historically great starts, we’re going to see him on that podium a lot this year.