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SMX Playoff Projections

By Fowlers Facts


Folks, it’s do or die time for making the inaugural SMX Playoffs. Two motos and 50 points are on the line this weekend in Indiana at the final round of Pro Motocross. Here’s what you need to know for each class.

Look, if you had one shot or one opportunity,
to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment, would you capture it or just let it slip?



16 racers have mathematically clinched a spot in the SMX Playoffs.

Chase Sexton, Aaron Plessinger, Cooper Webb, Adam Cianciarulo, Jett Lawrence, Dylan Ferrandis, Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, Justin Barcia, Freddie Noren, Grant Harlan, Ty Masterpool, Garrett Marchbanks, Kyle Chisholm, and Justin Hill

There are 5 racers to watch…

1) Jett Lawrence (currently 4th) is just 8 points behind Adam Cianciarulo (3rd). Jett can gain +2 valuable seeding points by passing Adam in the SMX standings.

2) Dylan Ferrandis (currently 6th) is just 16 points behind the idle Cooper Webb. He needs to finish 13th in each moto to pass Webb and gain +1 additional seeding point.

3) Justin Barcia (currently 10th) is 31 points behind Eli Tomac and 32 behind Ken Roczen. If he can get two top 5 finishes this weekend and score 33 points or more, he’ll move into 8th and gain an additional +2 seeding points.

4) Kyle Chisholm (currently 16th) is 9 points behind Justin Hill. If he can finish 16th or better each moto, he’ll pass Justin and gain +1 additional seeding point.

5) Jose Butron is currently 22nd and another 13 points would earn him a spot in all 3 playoff races. That said, he’s not expected to compete in the SMX Playoffs. This has BIG implications for Josh Hill who currently sits 20th! If Jose doesn’t bump Josh out of the top 20, Josh will have an automatic spot on the gate in all 3 rounds. If Jose bumps him to 21st, Josh has to race all 3 LCQ’s!

Additionally, I expect there’s going to be 3 alternate spots open to replace the injured Eli Tomac, Christian Craig, and Lorenzo Locurcio. There are likely another 3 alternate spots open as Romain Pape is not expected to race SMX (unconfirmed), Benny Bloss is under contract with Beta and won’t line-up, and Joey Savatgy has WSX commitments.

This will open the door for Josh Cartwright, Jerry Robin, Jeremy Hand, Harri Kullas, Lucas Marsalisi, Ryan Surratt, Jace Kessler and/or Bryce Shelly. With one round remaining, these final Pro Motocross points have big playoff implications.

Important Note: Racers will have to notify the AMA/Feld/MX Sports if they intend to race in the playoffs the week after the final Pro Motocross round. If racers opt-out, other racers will be invited starting with the 31st racer and on. No alternate racers will be bumped into top 20, but instead will have an opportunity to qualify for the motos via an LCQ each round.

There’s likely to be more changes among (injuries or other commitments) top 30 riders who don’t/can’t line up for the SMX Playoff races. Check back here to learn more about who’s in/out.

Note Curr Rank and Curr Points is through Budds Creek and Proj Rank and Proj Points are based on our end of season Pro Motocross forecasts


There’s some top factory talent still on the top 30 bubble and it’s going to make for some important motos at the final Pro Motocross round this weekend.

What’s most interesting is looking at just how competitive the LCQ race will be each round of the playoffs. Daxton Bennick, Stilez Robertson, Cameron McAdoo, and Austin Forkner are all going to be in the LCQ race for the 250 playoffs – that’s four very talented factory athletes with the potential to podium… and they’re all going to have to race the LCQ at each playoff round. It not only makes for an exciting LCQ race, these racers won’t have a great gate pick in the first moto!

10 racers have clinched a spot on the gate in all 3 SMX Playoff rounds.

Hunter Lawrence, Haiden Deegan, RJ Hampshire, Levi Kitchen, Jo Shimoda, Tom Vialle, Maximus Vohland, Justin Cooper, Jordon Smith, and Jett Lawrence

There are 4 racers to watch this weekend…

1) Ryder DiFrancesco (14th) needs 1 point and Carson Mumford (15th) needs 9 points to pass Max Anstie for 13th and 14th position.

2) Seth Hammaker (currently 22nd) needs to score 19 points to break into the top 20. I have him projected to score 22 points and finish 19th in the SMX standings.

3) Stilez Robertson (currently 31st) likely needs to score 14 points to finish inside the top 30. I say likely because it’s somewhat dependent on how Daxton Bennick and Austin Forkner do in each moto this weekend too. Regardless, I have him projected to score 16 points and finish 29th.

4) Austin Forkner is the most interesting to keep an eye on. He’s currently 34th in the SMX standings and needs to score 20 points to make my projected top 30 cut-off of 101 points. That means he needs to get 11th or better in each moto!

Similar to the 450s, there will be alternates invited for riders that choose not to participate in the playoffs. My rough calculations show there’s likely eight alternates that will be invited to fill spots left open by Jett Lawrence (450’s), Chance Hymas (injured), Enzo Lopes (injured), Jeremy Martin (injured), Chris Blose (WSX), Mitchell Oldenburg (WSX), Nate Thrasher (injured), and Cullin Park (WSX).

Note Curr Rank and Curr Points is through Budds Creek and Proj Rank and Proj Points are based on our end of season Pro Motocross forecasts