SMX Playoff Projections
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UPDATED THRU ROUND 10 BUDDS CREEK!
Folks, it’s do or die time for making the inaugural SMX Playoffs. Two motos and 50 points are on the line this weekend in Indiana at the final round of Pro Motocross. Here’s what you need to know for each class.
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to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment, would you capture it or just let it slip?
450 PLAYOFF UPDATE
16 racers have mathematically clinched a spot in the SMX Playoffs.
Chase Sexton, Aaron Plessinger, Cooper Webb, Adam Cianciarulo, Jett Lawrence, Dylan Ferrandis, Jason Anderson, Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, Justin Barcia, Freddie Noren, Grant Harlan, Ty Masterpool, Garrett Marchbanks, Kyle Chisholm, and Justin Hill
There are 5 racers to watch…
1) Jett Lawrence (currently 4th) is just 8 points behind Adam Cianciarulo (3rd). Jett can gain +2 valuable seeding points by passing Adam in the SMX standings.
2) Dylan Ferrandis (currently 6th) is just 16 points behind the idle Cooper Webb. He needs to finish 13th in each moto to pass Webb and gain +1 additional seeding point.
3) Justin Barcia (currently 10th) is 31 points behind Eli Tomac and 32 behind Ken Roczen. If he can get two top 5 finishes this weekend and score 33 points or more, he’ll move into 8th and gain an additional +2 seeding points.
4) Kyle Chisholm (currently 16th) is 9 points behind Justin Hill. If he can finish 16th or better each moto, he’ll pass Justin and gain +1 additional seeding point.
5) Jose Butron is currently 22nd and another 13 points would earn him a spot in all 3 playoff races. That said, he’s not expected to compete in the SMX Playoffs. This has BIG implications for Josh Hill who currently sits 20th! If Jose doesn’t bump Josh out of the top 20, Josh will have an automatic spot on the gate in all 3 rounds. If Jose bumps him to 21st, Josh has to race all 3 LCQ’s!
Additionally, I expect there’s going to be 3 alternate spots open to replace the injured Eli Tomac, Christian Craig, and Lorenzo Locurcio. There are likely another 3 alternate spots open as Romain Pape is not expected to race SMX (unconfirmed), Benny Bloss is under contract with Beta and won’t line-up, and Joey Savatgy has WSX commitments.
This will open the door for Josh Cartwright, Jerry Robin, Jeremy Hand, Harri Kullas, Lucas Marsalisi, Ryan Surratt, Jace Kessler and/or Bryce Shelly. With one round remaining, these final Pro Motocross points have big playoff implications.
Important Note: Racers will have to notify the AMA/Feld/MX Sports if they intend to race in the playoffs the week after the final Pro Motocross round. If racers opt-out, other racers will be invited starting with the 31st racer and on. No alternate racers will be bumped into top 20, but instead will have an opportunity to qualify for the motos via an LCQ each round.
There’s likely to be more changes among (injuries or other commitments) top 30 riders who don’t/can’t line up for the SMX Playoff races. Check back here to learn more about who’s in/out.
Note Curr Rank and Curr Points is through Budds Creek and Proj Rank and Proj Points are based on our end of season Pro Motocross forecasts
| RIDER | CURR RANK | CURR PTS | PROJ RANK | PROJ PTS | SX W's | MOTO W's |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sexton* | 1 | 666 | 1 | 708 | 6 | |
| Aaron Plessinger | 2 | 586 | 2 | 621 | ||
| Jett Lawrence | 4 | 500 | 3 | 550 | 20 | |
| Adam Cianciarulo | 3 | 508 | 4 | 538 | ||
| Dylan Ferrandis | 6 | 435 | 5 | 473 | ||
| Cooper Webb* | 5 | 451 | 6 | 451 | 2 | |
| Jason Anderson | 7 | 413 | 7 | 442 | ||
| Justin Barcia* | 10 | 308 | 8 | 342 | 1 | |
| Ken Roczen* | 8 | 340 | 9 | 340 | 1 | |
| Eli Tomac* | 9 | 339 | 10 | 339 | 7 | |
| Fredrik Noren | 11 | 286 | 11 | 304 | ||
| Grant Harlan | 12 | 256 | 12 | 273 | ||
| Ty Masterpool | 13 | 242 | 13 | 269 | ||
| Garrett Marchbanks | 14 | 228 | 14 | 257 | ||
| Kyle Chisholm | 16 | 203 | 15 | 216 | ||
| Justin Hill | 15 | 212 | 16 | 212 | ||
| Dean Wilson | 17 | 200 | 17 | 200 | ||
| Shane McElrath | 18 | 174 | 18 | 186 | ||
| Colt Nichols | 19 | 163 | 19 | 163 | ||
| Jose Butron | 22 | 142 | 20 | 156 | ||
| Josh Hill | 20 | 153 | 21 | 153 | ||
| Christian Craig | 21 | 150 | 22 | 150 | ||
| Phil Nicoletti | 23 | 120 | 23 | 137 | ||
| Lorenzo Locurcio | 24 | 110 | 24 | 110 | ||
| Kevin Moranz | 25 | 101 | 25 | 106 | ||
| Derek Drake | 26 | 94 | 26 | 104 | ||
| Justin Starling | 27 | 94 | 27 | 94 | ||
| Romain Pape | 30 | 84 | 28 | 93 | ||
| Benny Bloss | 28 | 91 | 29 | 91 | ||
| Joey Savatgy | 29 | 85 | 30 | 85 | ||
| Justin Cooper | 31 | 76 | 31 | 76 | ||
| Joshua Cartwright | 32 | 76 | 31 | 76 | ||
| Jerry Robin | 33 | 69 | 33 | 69 | ||
| Jeremy Hand | 35 | 57 | 34 | 68 | ||
| Harri Kullas | 36 | 46 | 35 | 66 | ||
| Cade Clason | 34 | 64 | 36 | 64 | ||
| Luca Marsalisi | 37 | 46 | 37 | 54 | ||
| Jace Kessler | 40 | 31 | 38 | 39 | ||
| Bryce Shelly | 44 | 28 | 39 | 37 | ||
| Anton Gole | 42 | 29 | 40 | 35 | ||
| Ryan Surratt | 38 | 33 | 41 | 33 | ||
| Max Miller | 46 | 27 | 42 | 33 | ||
| Marshal Weltin | 39 | 32 | 43 | 32 | ||
| Jay Wilson | 49 | 21 | 44 | 32 | ||
| Tristan Lane | 41 | 29 | 45 | 29 | ||
| Devin Simonson | 43 | 28 | 46 | 28 | ||
| Brandon Ray | 47 | 23 | 47 | 28 | ||
| Chris Canning | 45 | 27 | 48 | 27 | ||
| Stephen Rubini | 53 | 18 | 48 | 27 | ||
| Kaeden Amerine | 54 | 18 | 50 | 24 | ||
250 PLAYOFF UPDATE
There’s some top factory talent still on the top 30 bubble and it’s going to make for some important motos at the final Pro Motocross round this weekend.
What’s most interesting is looking at just how competitive the LCQ race will be each round of the playoffs. Daxton Bennick, Stilez Robertson, Cameron McAdoo, and Austin Forkner are all going to be in the LCQ race for the 250 playoffs – that’s four very talented factory athletes with the potential to podium… and they’re all going to have to race the LCQ at each playoff round. It not only makes for an exciting LCQ race, these racers won’t have a great gate pick in the first moto!
10 racers have clinched a spot on the gate in all 3 SMX Playoff rounds.
Hunter Lawrence, Haiden Deegan, RJ Hampshire, Levi Kitchen, Jo Shimoda, Tom Vialle, Maximus Vohland, Justin Cooper, Jordon Smith, and Jett Lawrence
There are 4 racers to watch this weekend…
1) Ryder DiFrancesco (14th) needs 1 point and Carson Mumford (15th) needs 9 points to pass Max Anstie for 13th and 14th position.
2) Seth Hammaker (currently 22nd) needs to score 19 points to break into the top 20. I have him projected to score 22 points and finish 19th in the SMX standings.
3) Stilez Robertson (currently 31st) likely needs to score 14 points to finish inside the top 30. I say likely because it’s somewhat dependent on how Daxton Bennick and Austin Forkner do in each moto this weekend too. Regardless, I have him projected to score 16 points and finish 29th.
4) Austin Forkner is the most interesting to keep an eye on. He’s currently 34th in the SMX standings and needs to score 20 points to make my projected top 30 cut-off of 101 points. That means he needs to get 11th or better in each moto!
Similar to the 450s, there will be alternates invited for riders that choose not to participate in the playoffs. My rough calculations show there’s likely eight alternates that will be invited to fill spots left open by Jett Lawrence (450’s), Chance Hymas (injured), Enzo Lopes (injured), Jeremy Martin (injured), Chris Blose (WSX), Mitchell Oldenburg (WSX), Nate Thrasher (injured), and Cullin Park (WSX).
Note Curr Rank and Curr Points is through Budds Creek and Proj Rank and Proj Points are based on our end of season Pro Motocross forecasts
| RIDER | CURR RANK | CURR PTS | PROJ RANK | PROJ PTS | SX W's | MOTO W's |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Lawrence* | 1 | 615 | 1 | 654 | 7 | 7 |
| Haiden Deegan* | 2 | 497 | 2 | 530 | 3 | |
| RJ Hampshire* | 3 | 474 | 3 | 502 | 1 | 2 |
| Levi Kitchen* | 4 | 464 | 4 | 495 | 1 | 2 |
| Jo Shimoda* | 5 | 418 | 5 | 452 | 1 | |
| Max Vohland | 6 | 390 | 6 | 417 | ||
| Tom Vialle* | 7 | 383 | 7 | 416 | 1 | |
| Justin Cooper | 8 | 369 | 8 | 410 | 4 | |
| Jordon Smith | 9 | 234 | 9 | 234 | ||
| Jett Lawrence* | 10 | 223 | 10 | 223 | 6 | |
| Jalek Swoll | 11 | 195 | 11 | 215 | ||
| Talon Hawkins | 12 | 189 | 12 | 201 | ||
| Ryder Difrancesco | 14 | 181 | 13 | 199 | ||
| Carson Mumford | 15 | 173 | 14 | 193 | ||
| Max Anstie* | 13 | 181 | 15 | 181 | 1 | |
| Pierce Brown | 16 | 159 | 16 | 174 | ||
| Dilan Schwartz | 17 | 159 | 17 | 171 | ||
| Caden Braswell | 18 | 158 | 18 | 170 | ||
| Seth Hammaker | 22 | 133 | 19 | 155 | ||
| Chance Hymas | 19 | 152 | 20 | 152 | ||
| Enzo Lopes | 20 | 149 | 21 | 149 | ||
| Jeremy Martin | 21 | 147 | 22 | 147 | ||
| Chris Blose | 23 | 133 | 23 | 133 | ||
| Mitchell Oldenburg | 24 | 131 | 24 | 131 | ||
| Derek Kelley | 25 | 126 | 25 | 131 | ||
| Daxton Bennick | 29 | 101 | 26 | 121 | ||
| Nate Thrasher* | 26 | 120 | 27 | 120 | 1 | |
| Cullin Park | 27 | 117 | 28 | 117 | ||
| Stilez Robertson | 31 | 87 | 29 | 103 | ||
| Cameron McAdoo | 28 | 101 | 30 | 101 | ||
| Austin Forkner | 34 | 81 | 30 | 101 | ||
| Coty Schock | 30 | 89 | 32 | 89 | ||
| Cole Thompson | 32 | 87 | 33 | 87 | ||
| Henry Miller | 33 | 86 | 34 | 86 | ||
| Jace Owen | 35 | 81 | 35 | 81 | ||
| Robbie Wageman | 36 | 78 | 36 | 78 | ||
| Michael Mosiman | 37 | 71 | 37 | 71 | ||
| Preston Kilroy | 40 | 60 | 38 | 70 | ||
| Joshua Varize | 41 | 60 | 39 | 65 | ||
| Jeremy Hand | 39 | 62 | 40 | 62 | ||
| Guillem Farres | 42 | 57 | 41 | 57 | ||
| Michael Hicks | 43 | 57 | 41 | 57 | ||
| Hunter Yoder | 44 | 55 | 43 | 55 | ||
| Derek Drake | 45 | 52 | 44 | 52 | ||
| Dylan Walsh | 46 | 49 | 45 | 49 | ||
| Hardy Munoz | 49 | 43 | 46 | 45 | ||
| Mitchell Harrison | 38 | 63 | 47 | 44 | ||
| Phil Nicoletti | 47 | 44 | 47 | 44 | ||
| Luke Neese | 48 | 44 | 47 | 44 | ||
| Julien Beaumer | 56 | 22 | 47 | 44 | ||
A 411 refresher on the SMX Playoffs
Qualifying
– Top 20 combined points (SX/MX seasons) are guaranteed gate position at all 3 playoff races
– Top 20 earn seeding points using modified Pro Motocross points (25-22-20-18-17… down to 2 points for 20th)
– If a Top 20 racer opts-out of the playoffs (i.e. Eli Tomac is injured), then the 31st racer is added to the LCQ race. The 21st racer does NOT bump up into the Top 20
– Top 30 must qualify at each Playoff race in a LCQ.
– If a Top 30 racer is out injured or opts-out of the playoffs, the 31st, 32nd, 33rd, etc racer will receive an invitation.
– All racers need to notify the AMA/Feld/MX Sports of their participation in the SMX Playoffs the week after the final Pro Motocross round.
Race Format
– Two moto format with Olympic scoring.
– Each moto is 20 minutes + 1 lap
– Points are paid on OVERALL finishes but escalate each round, paying 1x, 2x, and 3x per moto.
– Points are a modified version of Pro Motocross (25-22-20-18-17…). 21st gets 1 point and 22nd receives zero points.
– Note: these points count towards riders earning a national number for 2024 (and it’s possible this will become the standard for SX, MX, and SMX next year).
The $5.5M Purse
– ~$1.2M of the total goes to individual Playoff race results. Each race pays just over $400K. The 450 winner gets $100K and the 250 winner gets $50K. All 22 positions in each class gets paid.
– ~$4.3M of the total goes to the season ending SMX results. The 450SMX champion gets $1M and the 250SMX champion gets $500K.
– Head to supermotocross.com for the detailed breakdown.
For more information on the SMX Playoffs, check out these great resources and we highly recommend following SMX Insider on YouTube.
– SMX Insider Episode 30. Dave Prater, Mike Muye, and our own Clinton Fowler have segments on the SMX Playoffs, SMX Tracks, and Points Projections
– SuperMotocross World Championship Rules broken down by Daniel Blair.
Hope you enjoyed the read. If you have questions or want to talk numbers, hit me up on Instagram or Twitter @fowlersfacts
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