Jett Lawrence Timeline and Playoff Scenarios

Jett Lawrence had surgery on his right ACL in Orange County, Calif. at 11:30 a.m. on Feb. 4. According to the Honda PR, “recovery prognosis is unknown”. Here’s what we do know:

From the date of surgery, he has three months and three weeks until the start of the Pro Motocross Championships. Let’s run through a few scenarios to see how he could pull off winning a third straight SuperMotocross World Championship, a second 450MX Pro Motocross title, or both.

Jett Lawrence Scenario #1

• No Pro Motocross.
• Return for the SuperMotocross World Championships (Sept. 6).
• Jett will have seven months and two days from the date of surgery until the gate drops at zMax Dragway.
• Because he won a Supercross main event, he is automatically seeded into the top 30 for the SuperMotocross Playoffs.
• He does NOT have an automatic bid into the motos. He scored 71 points in 450SX. The 2023 top 20 cutoff was 155 and 140 in 2024.
• This means he would have to qualify through the LCQ at each of the three rounds.
• He would start with zero seeding points, thus be -25 points to the #1 seed.
• Eli Tomac didn’t race Pro Motocross in 2024. He entered SMX as an 11 seed (+11 points), finished 2-4-3 in the three events and ended third overall in the points (-27).
• Jett will need seeding points to win this championship (see scenario #2)

Scenario #2

• To truly be competitive for the SMX Championship, he’ll need to climb deep into the top 20 to secure seeding points.
• We estimate he needs to get up to 5th overall at the end of Pro Motocross. With 5th, he has a slight cushion. So he wouldn’t have to sweep the Playoff rounds.
• The # of points he’ll need to get into 5th, however, will depend on how healthy his competition remains.
• Example #1: 5th in 2023 was Dylan Ferrandis (455 points).
• Example #2: 5th in 2024 was Justin Cooper (598 points).
• MX has 550 points available. If 2025 plays out like 2024, Jett would need to race the entire MX season and finish in the top 2 each moto.

Here’s a refresher on how Jett Lawrence won the first two SMX titles:

• 2023, Lawrence entered the playoffs as a #3 seed, went 4-1-1 and won the championship by 17 points.
• 2024, Lawrence was a #6 seed (-9 points), went 1-3-1 and tied his brother in points. He won the championship on the tiebreaker (more SMX overall wins).

Scenario #3

• Jett’s recovery is quick and he feels ready to line up at Fox Raceway on May 24, 2025.
• It would not be the first (or second) time a champion exited Supercross and returned for the Pro Motocross opener on a tight deadline.
• Both Ricky Carmichael and James Stewart tore ACLs (coincidentally, also without crashing) and returned to Pro Motocross in short recovery periods.
• And they each had perfect 24-0 MX seasons.

Ricky Carmichael: 2003

• Left ACL.
• Replacement ligament taken from his own patella
• Surgery: Dec. 9, 2003.
• Rode again on April 1, 2004.
• Raced again, May 16, 2004 (1-1 at Hangtown Classic)
• RC’s comeback is fully detailed and documented in the We Went Fast Epic, “Ricky Carmichael Made Lightning Strike Twice.”

James Stewart: 2008

• Left ACL.
• Replacement ligament grafted from his own hamstring.
• Surgery: Jan. 19, 2008.
• Raced again on May 25, four months and three days after surgery (1-1 at Glen Helen)
• Stewart’s comeback is fully detailed and documented in the We Went Fast Epic, “James Stewart, the Fastest Man on the Planet, Finds Perfection.”

Ryan Villopoto: 2012

• Left ACL on April 21, 2012 at the Seattle SX (had already wrapped the title)
• Surgery: replacement ligament grafted from a cadaver.
• Cleared to ride: July 24, 2012 (just three months and three days)
• Trainer, Aldon Baker: “Villopoto was the quickest one to come back from ACL, but it was cadaver. And it blew again. I don’t recommend cadavers anymore.”