Chase Sexton vs. Jett Lawrence: SMX Title Scenarios

Chase Sexton and Jett Lawrence have won 38 of the last 45 450MX, SX and SMX races. That’s going back to Sexton’s win at the 2023 Nashville Supercross.

We’re pointing this out to justify why you’re being asked to imagine a Chase vs. Jett showdown in the 2024 SuperMotocross World Championships, which begin this weekend in Charlotte.

The 2023 SMX playoffs were won by Chase Sexton (1-3-10) and J. Lawrence (4-1-1), with Ken Roczen (2-2-2) finishing between them in the final points. Imagining the same situation, we’ve detailed two scenarios.

Lawrence returns this weekend at zMax Dragway just 66 days after surgery to repair torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his left thumb.

He’s the #6 seed (he was the #3 seed in 2023). This means he will start with 16 points, -9 to Sexton, who starts with 25 (for the second year in a row).

In each of the scenarios below, Sexton only wins one race, but NEITHER of those wins is the triple points paying final round. Being the #1 seed is a huge asset for Sexton this year.

Sexton: 2-1-2; Jett: 1-2-1

Slide our charts left for more info.

In the above scenario, Chase Sexton wins the $1 million dollars with 163 points (vs. Jett’s 160) and is your 2024 SuperMotocross Champion. The key is that Sexton has to win the double points paying round.

To help make the point about how important it is to win certain rounds, imagine this scenario…

Sexton: 1-2-2; Jett: 2-1-1

In the above, we simply switched Chase to winning the first single points paying race instead of the second double points paying race. If that happens, Jett Lawrence is your repeat 2024 SuperMotocross Champion and takes home $1 million dollars.

These are simple scenarios and don’t account for any other riders getting between them. But, again, see the opening sentence; Sexton and Lawrence have won nearly 85% of the 450 races run since April 29, 2023.

But you know what hasn’t happened in the last 18 months? Jett Lawrence hasn’t finished second overall on a 450.

Not once.