What Really Happened in Nashville 2026?
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Has there ever been a topic more discussed than Eli Tomac’s ‘2026 mid-season slump’!? We’ve tried to stay clear, but we couldn’t help ourselves. TLDR – Eli Tomac had a bad race in Nashville because the scoop tire didn’t work in two segments that accounted for 21% of his total lap time (11.54 of 55.682 second avg laptime). Continue reading for the details.
Eli Tomac finished 12th for the second time this season. To confirm, that’s not good (be sure to read this week’s Shop Rag to learn why his championship odds are now only 6%).
It also won’t come as a surprise that finishing 12th means his lap times weren’t particularly great. As you can see below, he was nowhere near the pace of his championship rivals Hunter Lawrence and Ken Roczen. Interestingly, he was on pace with Chase Sexton at the beginning of the race, but once Chase passed Eli, Chase was setting top 2 lap times while Eli’s pace dropped off further.
Nashville: Lap Time Ranks by Lap
Looking at the lap times over the race, there’s a few things that stick out…
- When Hunter Lawrence made the pass for the lead on lap 14, he sprinted for 4 laps and then put it in ‘cruise control’. He lost nearly a second a lap to Cooper Webb from lap 18 on. He managed the race well.
- Ken Roczen fell on lap 14 but he got back into charge mode for the remainder of the race. Championship motivation.
- Chase Sexton was able to set some heaters once he moved through the traffic. He was first or second fastest in the last 6 of 7 laps. Makes one think not all is bad on that Kawasaki.
- Eli Tomac’s crash on lap 17 was a brutal blow (21.05 seconds vs. average of 8.8 seconds all other laps in Segment). His average time in that segment ranked 22nd as a result.
But it wasn’t that segment nor that crash that was the issue for Eli Tomac…
Nashville: Lap Times per Lap
So what really happened in Nashville? The scoop tire didn’t work in segments 3 (crossing the start straight) and segment 6 (whoops).
Segment 3: Crossing the Start Straight
Segment 3 accounted for a mere 9% of an average laptime (4-5 seconds of a 55-56 second lap).
- Eli Tomac ranked 17th in this segment, but…
- …in reality, Eli Tomac ranked 21st in this segment cause Malcolm Stewart (lap 3), Joey Savatgy (lap 3), Jordon Smith (lap 6), and Tristan Lane (lap 20) all crashed here. Exclude the crashes and they are faster than Eli.
Eli Tomac was the 2nd slowest rider in Segment 3 and lost a total of -7.72 seconds. 15% of his time deficit to Hunter Lawrence was in this segment. That’s nearly double the impact of that segment’s portion of the overall lap time.
Key Takeway: The scoop tire is not optimal on hard pack and especially not hard pack with a 90 degree corner that has a jump on the inside
Segment 6: Whoops
Eli ranked 13th in the whoops and lost a total of -8.19 seconds to Hunter Lawrence. It wasn’t quite as significantly disproportionate an impact to his results, but it was very clearly (via stats and the eye test) an area that Eli struggled on Saturday.
Key Takeaway: 21% of the track accounted for 31% of his time deficit. Two segments, especially the 4-5 second segment 3, was simply not optimal for racing with a scoop tire. In a sport where hundreds of a second matter, that’s a big deal.