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PREVIEW

2026 Nashville Supercross Research

By Brett Smith

Welcome to the Music City!

Moto in the Music City has a very short history, dating back to 2019 when Eli Tomac (450SX) and Martin Davalos (250SX East) won the first Supercross main events ever held in the Volunteer State. The Nashville round took a four year break before returning in 2023 as round 15. We once again return in 2026 after skipping the city in 2025.

The city has good memories for some of the title competitors…

  • Eli Tomac won the inaugural visit in 2019. He round lap 1 in 11th position and went classic beast mode and was in the lead just 7 minutes into the main event.
  • In 2023, Hunter Lawrence won his 7th race of the season and clinched his first U.S. championship, ending a long injury-filled slog that began in 2019.

450 Rider Facts

  • Ken Roczen got his first back-to-back wins since the 2021 residency in Indianapolis where he swept 3 races.
  • The 2021 Indianapolis sweep by Ken Roczen is also the only time in his career he’s won three in a row.
  • This is the closest to the points lead Ken Roczen has ever been in the final third of the SX season.
  • In 2020 and 2021 (after 12 rounds) Roczen was -13 and -15 points out of the championship lead. He never climbed into the single digits.
  • Justin Cooper has 3 career 2nd place finishes. He has 2 podiums this season (Seattle and St Louis).
  • Justin Cooper has also finished 4th-6th in 7 of the 12 rounds – incredibly consistent!
  • Hunter Lawrence‘s St. Louis holeshot was his 4th of the season. He continues to have the best 1st lap position in the series.
  • Hunter Lawrence now has a series leading 9 podiums – one of the most statistically significant factors in winning a premier class Supercross title.
  • Notably, Hunter Lawrence has won just one of the races where he holeshot (TC3 Indy).
  • Cooper Webb hasn’t been on the podium in 3 rounds. He’s gone 6-6-5 at Birmingham, Detroit, and St Louis. Amazingly he’s only dropped 5 points further back of the red plate holder during that time.
  • Justin Cooper has two podiums this season (Seattle and St Louis).

250 Rider Facts

  • Cole Davies has 3 wins in 6 starts in his sophomore season.
  • Cole Davies got his first holeshot of the season and rounded lap 1 in 1st – Prior to St Louis, he’d averaged 8th on lap 1.
  • Cole Davies and Seth Hammaker are the only riders to finish top 5 in every round.
  • Cole Davies and Seth Hammaker have also finished on the podium in the last 4 rounds.
  • Daxton Bennick won his second career LCQ last week in St Louis and went on to finish 6th in the main event. He now sits 3rd in the standings.
  • Nate Thrasher finished 4th in last week’s E/W Showdown – his first top 5 finish of the season!
  • Nick Romano has finished an impressive 7th and 9th in the last two rounds. Not bad for a fill-in rider for Drew Adams. He was running top 5 through the first 5 laps.

Tightest 3 Rider Championship Battle (after 12 rounds)

5 points separating the top 3 riders is indeed the closest the series has been after 12 rounds of racing.

Eli Tomac, Hunter Lawrence, and Ken Roczen are separated by the equivalent of 1st to 3rd in a single race. Five rounds remain, with 125 points up for grabs (and about as many laps still to run). Anything can (and will) happen. Look no further than 2 weeks ago in Detroit when then series leader Hunter Lawrence crashed.

Ken Roczen – Most Seasons to First SX Title?

Ken Roczen (and Suzuki) are having an incredible season. Case in point – he just won back-to-back for the first time since 2021 when he swept the 3-round Indianapolis ‘residency’.

At 31 years old (32 on April 29th), he’s been racing full-time in the premier class since 2014. That’s 13 seasons!

  • At 32 years old, he’d be the oldest rider to win a premier class Supercross title and the first to do so over the age of 30 (the oldest rider to win a Supercross title is Eli Tomac in 2022 at 29 years, 5 months, and 23 days).

For Suzuki, it’d be just the 5th premier class Supercross title. For Suzuki (and HEP Motorsports), it’d be an incredible return to the top of the sport when just a few years ago they had very little presence.

Suzuki Premier Class Supercross Titles

But maybe most impressive is the perseverance that Ken Roczen’s shown throughout his career and how a title in his 13th season would be simply incredible.

Most Seasons To First Premier Class Supercross Title

The longest it’s taken for someone to win their first title is 7 seasons – Eli Tomac.

No matter how you look at it, if Ken Roczen’s to win this title, it’ll be an incredible feat and cap a legendary career. He’s won…

  • 2011 MX2 World Champion
  • 2013 250SX West division title
  • 2014 and 2016 450MX titles

The 2026 Supercross title would cap his career nicely!

Hunter Lawrence – First Career Win and Title in Same Year?

Hunter Lawrence is in his 3rd season of 450 Supercross and with 5 rounds remaining he is tied for the series lead.

  • Prior to this season, he had 2 podiums in 19 starts….

But his 2026 season has been a massive trajectory change, including holding the red plate for 7 rounds.

450SX Career Stats by Year
  • So what are the chances of a first time winner (who also wins the title? It’s not uncommon.
  • The average number of years to the first title is 3.1.
  • 11 past champions (46% of the 24) won their first race in the same year they won their first title.
First Win to First Title

Based on the stats, Hunter Lawrence is in his prime for winning his first premier class Supercross title.

All-Time Eli Tomac – 3x Supercross Champion?

Eli Tomac joined KTM in his 13th season – his 4th OEM – at 33 years old. A big change with lots of uncertainty. The questions ended after he started the season with 2 wins and 3 podiums in the first 3 rounds.

Strong Start – Rounds 1-3
Mid-Season Slump – Rounds 10-12

But if he’s able to figure it out, there’s a LOT at stake…

  • He could become only the second champion to win a premier class Supercross champion on 3 different OEMs (Kawasaki, Yamaha, ?KTM?), joining Ricky Carmichael (Kawasaki, Honda, Suzuki)
  • Similar to Ken Roczen above, he could also become the first Supercross champion over the age of 30. He’s currently the oldest Supercross champion from when he won in 2022 at 29 years, 5 months, and 23 days.

But maybe most impressive is he’d join just 7 other riders in the history of the sport to win 3 premier class Supercross titles.

3x Supercross Champions

Mr. Consistency – Seth Hammaker

Over the first 4 seasons of his career (2021-24), Seth made 19 of 37 starts – just 51%. That has entirely changed since his 2025 season.

He’s made every single start and he’s been on the podium just shy of half the races (47% – 7 of 15 starts).

2025-26 Supercross Stats

What’s changed?! The biggest thing you have to point at is a move back to the east coast to be more conveniently located to his family. As he shared in St Louis, it was a big moment in “growing up” and probably took 5 conversations with Mitch Payton. Well worth the effort!

Milestones

450 Achieved Last Week
  • Ken Roczen (174) broke a tie with Jeremy McGrath (173) for 10th all-time premier class SX starts.
450s
  • Eli Tomac…
  • Eli Tomac (113) needs 1 more win to tie James Stewart (114) for the 2nd most wins all-time (all classes, SX+MX).
  • Cooper Webb (32) wins SX+MX needs one more to tie Jett Lawrence (33)
  • Ken Roczen (26) wins needs one more to tie Bob Hannah (27) for 10th all-time.

250 Achieved Last Week

  • Haiden Deegan (13 wins) tied Jeremy McGrath, Austin Forkner, and Jett Lawrence for 3rd all-time.
  • Haiden Deegan (27 SX+MX wins) tied Jett Lawrence for 4th all-time.
  • Haiden Deegan (49 SX+MX podiums) tied James Stewart for 5th all-time.
250s
  • Cole Davies (5) could break a tie with multiple riders in 50th all-time to tie another group of riders at 40th all-time including Chase Sexton, Aaron Plessinger, Dylan Ferrandis, Nate Thrasher, and RJ Hampshire.