What Really Happened? Lapped Riders.

It’s an off week in the world of SuperMotocross, but the moto community has been buzzing about the post race press conference comments from Hunter Lawrence, Eli Tomac, and Cooper Webb along with Gypsy Tales’ Jase Macalpine.

Typically speaking, we like to stick to the facts and that’s what we’re going to do here. The Facts, love ’em or hate ’em, can be used to draw a picture about lapped riders. We give you the facts, you draw your own opinion.

First things first, let’s look at the most basic stat – who’s getting lapped in the 450 main events.

450 Supercross Lapped Riders

• 29 riders have been lapped for a total of 115 times and an average of 3.9 mains this season.
• More informative, they are lapped a median of 3.0 mains this season which highlights two very different groups.
  • Group 1 = Rarely Lapped (aka lapped 1 or 2 times this season). There are 12 riders that have been lapped in just 16 mains for an average of 1.3 times. These riders are a mixed bag of (a) best in the sport and crashed a la Ken Roczen in Seattle or (b) riders that rarely make the mains a la Scott Meshey (4 career mains in 56 entries) in Daytona.
  • Group 2 = Lapped in 90% or more of their main starts. There are 16 riders that have been lapped in 70 of their 71 main starts this season. These riders are statistically guaranteed to be lapped and are mostly considered privateers. Mitchell Harrison (13 of 13), Vince Friese (12 of 13), Tristan Lane (9 of 9), Grant Harlan (7 of 7), and Kevin Moranz (6 of 6) top the list.

Lap Pace Rule

Another stat that’s been talked about a lot has been the ‘pace rule’. It’s a rule that exists in Formula 1, IndyCar, Moto GP, WEC, and IMSA and most motorsports. Notable that NASCAR is rumored to have had a pace rule but does not in the 2026 rulebook. The pace rule is primarily for safety purposes and it ensures a cut-off that all competitors must beat to race. Notable that most of these rules also come with a cavaet of ‘under race direction’.

For reference, here’s a few of the rules…

• Formula 1 – A sporting regulation ensuring cars are fast enough to race safely. Any driver that fails to set a lap time 107% of the fastest Q1 time is generally barred from starting. “Unclassified Drivers”, as they are referred, can potentially compete based on race directions review of their other practice times, previous performance, or the gravity of offence which caused the disqualification. When it was re-introduced in 2011, a few media outlets said it was to prevent cars from being moving chicanes (Ed note – see riders with 120% avg pace this year)
• IndyCar – In general, Entries must perform within 105% of the Car posting the best time and demonstrate consistency, control/placement and interaction with other Cars on-track to the satisfaction of IndyCar. Interestingly, the performance standard can vary and when it’s set (before/after qualifying or other) is left up to race direction based on physical condition of the “Track, safety, and other considerations.”
• Moto GP – A rider must set a lap time within 105% of the fastest rider’s time in Free Practice or Practice sessions in order to be allowed to race and go into qualifying.

So what if SuperMotocross implemented a similar rule!? We looked at the fastest qualifying times of every 450 entry this season and did the math. Specifically, we calculated the “PACE %” for each rider – the average % vs. the best rider in qualifying at each round. 100% is the PACE % for the fastest qualifier and everyone is slower from there.

Here’s what we learned…

• If SuperMotocross used the Formula 1 rule of 107%, 27 riders would make the cut-off this season and the rest would be “Unclassfied”. Kevin Moranz 28th and Grant Harlan 29th would just miss!
• If SuperMotocross used the IndyCar and MotoGP 105% rule, 22 riders would make the cut-off this season. The first rider that wouldn’t make the cut is Vince Friese (and based on a sentiment keyword analysis of moto twitter, this would make a lot of folks happy).

There’s very clearly a safety concern in most motorsports regarding significant performance gaps between competitors. The primary difference you see across sports is the at what Pace % they choose for the cut-off and the depth and detail around race direction discretion.

Nonetheless, using the season average Pace % of the riders above, applied to SuperMotocross, 105% would eliminate the need for heat races and could shorten the program (or open the program to have a pre-race show weekly). A 107% cut-off would likely require more format changes if implemented but not as drastic. However, the 110% mark would be 40 riders.

Keep in mind the above Pace % is a season average and not a per race calculation. Where riders fall in Pace % week-to-week can vary quite a bit.

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Before you set your opinion in stone about a cut-off and what it should be, it’s best to also consider at what Pace % will the leaders encounter a lapped rider on a 45, 60, and 75 second laptime track.

Reference: 45 Second Lap (re: 26 laps in 20 minutes)

• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 105% on lap 20 of 26 (15.8 mins)
• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 107% on lap 14 of 26 (11.5 mins) – just past the halfway mark.
• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 110% on lap 10 of 26 (8.2 mins)

— said differently —

• A rider that’s going at 105% pace would set a 47.3 second laptime, get lapped 15.8 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 20 of a 26 lap main event.
• A rider that’s going at 107% pace would set a 48.2 second laptime, get lapped 11.5 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 14 of a 26 lap main event.
• A rider that’s going at 110% pace would set a 49.5 second laptime, get lapped 8.2 minutes into the main event on roughly lap

Reference: 60 Second Lap (re: 20 Laps in 20 minutes)

• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 105% on lap 20 of 20 (21.0 mins)
• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 107% on lap 14 of 20 (15.3 mins)
• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 110% on lap 10 of 20 (11.0 mins) – just past the halfway mark

— said differently —

• A rider that’s going at 105% pace would set a 63.0 second laptime, get lapped 21.0 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 20 of a 20 lap main event.
• A rider that’s going at 107% pace would set a 64.2 second laptime, get lapped 15.3 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 14 of a 20 lap main event.
• A rider that’s going at 110% pace would set a 66.0 second laptime, get lapped 11.0 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 10 of a 20 lap main event.

Reference: 70 Second Lap (re: 17 laps in 20 minutes)

• Leaders will not encounter a rider racing at 105%.
• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 107% on lap 14 of 17 (17.8 mins)
• Leaders will encounter a lapped rider racing at 110% on lap 10 of 17 (12.8 mins)

— said differently —

• A rider that’s going at 105% pace would set a 73.5 second laptime would not get lapped in a 20 minute main event.
• A rider that’s going at 107% pace would set a 74.9 second laptime, get lapped 17.8 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 14 of a 17 lap main event.
• A rider that’s going at 110% pace would set a 77.0 second laptime, get lapped 12.8 minutes into the main event on roughly lap 10 of a 17 lap main event.

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Other Facts Requested From Fans

• Josh Greco has made 1 main event in 217 entries (both classes). That’s approximately $75K in entry fees. The 1 main event was a 13th at Las Vegas 2013 in the 125/250 class.