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2026 Arlington Supercross Research

February 17, 2026

By Brett Smith

Welcome to Arlington!

Among the original Supercross markets with Daytona, LA & Houston, Irving’s Texas Stadium held round 1 of the 1975 Yamaha Super Series of Motocross. Since 2010, SX in the Dallas area has been in Arlington’s AT&T Stadium, home of the NFL’s Cowboys.

Cooper Webb won the closest finish in Supercross history (.028) in 2019 passing Ken Roczen in the last corner.
Jimmy Ellis was the first winner of a Dallas Supercross race in 1975 as part of the Yamaha Super Series of Motocross. He went 1-1-1-2 to win the overall.
Ricky Carmichael won his 11st consecutive race and wrapped up his first Supercross title here in 2001.
James Stewart won his first career premier class supercross (3rd career start, 12th round of the series) in 2005.

450 Rider Facts

Justin Cooper got his first podium of the season and 6th of his premier class career.
Jorge Prado (2) is the only rider with multiple holeshots this season.
Season Firsts: Cooper Webb got his first holeshot, set his first fastest lap in the main, and led laps (13) for the first time this year.
Cooper Webb qualified a season best 3rd last week in Seattle. His previous best was 6th in Glendale.
Hunter Lawrence is (still) the only rider to finish top 5 at every round this season.
Aaron Plessinger raced his 100th race last weekend in Seattle.
The top 4 in points are also the top 4 in average 1st lap position. Hunter Lawrence averages +2 positions better than the next best!

250 Rider Facts

The 250 East division represents 17 wins and 60 podium (assuming Forkner stays 450). Comparatively, the 250 West division was 20 wins and 90 podiums at the beginning of the season.
Seth Hammaker (2 wins, 3 podiums) finished 2nd in the 2025 250 East division, losing to Tom Vialle (1 win, 6 podiums) by -3 points.
Nate Thrasher (1 win, 2 podiums) finished 4th in the 2025 250 East division. Notably he finished outside the top 10 at 4 of 10 rounds!
Privateer Spotlight: Cullin Park finished 5th in the 2025 250 East standings just 6 points behind Nate Thrasher. He finished a season best 2nd in the mud of Foxborough.
Jo Shimoda has finished top 4 in a 250 Supercross division series in 5 of 6 seasons. He started 2025 with a win at Anaheim 1 and then broke 2 fingers on a pitboard in qualifying the next round. He wasn’t better than 5th in a round the remainder of the season.
Coty Schock finished a career best 2nd at Arlington (triple crown) last season. That was his only podium of the season (and his career).

First to 3 Wins – Eli Tomac

We’ve only run 6 rounds, but the first to 3 wins has been a fairly good predictor of who’s going to win the championship. I know, I know, it early but we’re over a third of way through the season and with betting markets growing, this is our reality.

Since 1977 (exclude 1974-76 given limited rounds), the first to 3 wins has won the championship 70% of the time (35 of 50).
Since 2000, the first to 3 wins has won the championship 78% of the time (21 of 27).

However, it’s notable that Eli Tomac has been the first to 3 wins 5x in his career but has only gone on to win 50% of the time (2020 and 2022) so far.

2017 – Third win at round 7 in Minneapolis but didn’t win the championship. A 15th at Arlington and an 8th at A2 and E Rutherford was just too many ‘bad days’.
2020 – Third win at round 7 in Tampa and went on to win his first Supercross title.
2022 – Third win at round 8 in Arlington (triple crown) and went on to win his second Supercross title.
2023 – Third win at round 4 in Houston (reminder that Oakland was the 6th race run in 2023) but didn’t win the championship due to an Achilles injury at the second to last round in Denver that knocked him out of the series.
2026 – Third win at round 6 in Seattle…

Eli Tomac now has the 2nd most 450SX+MX wins all-time.

Reasons To Believe

He’s averaging a series best 2.5 in qualifying and has been fastest 2x.
He’s won 2 heats and hasn’t finished worse than 3rd.
He’s finished top 4 in 5 of 6 rounds. His only blemish is Glendale after a first turn crash that ultimately resulted in a 12th place finish.
He’s the fourth best starter even with that first turn crash in Glendale.
He’s the got top ranked speed in the mains.

Fun Fact: In 2025, Cooper Webb didn’t get his first win till round 6 (2nd latest in history for a champion) but was the first rider to 3 wins (round 9 Indianapolis).

Notably, only Jeremy McGrath has been first to 3 wins more times than Eli Tomac and he won the title all 6 times. Ricky Carmichael (4 for 4) and Ryan Villopoto (3 for 4) were also first to 3 wins 4 times.

Arlington is Jerry’s Webb’s World

Cooper Webb has won 7 of 11 career starts in Arlington and 7 of the last 9 (he was 3rd in 2022 and 12th in 2020)! His 7 wins in Arlington include a 3 race residency sweep in 2021.

Notable Stats:

He averages 4.6 in qualifying vs. his career avg of 5.9.
He’s led 84 laps in Arlington. Most of any venue.
His next best venue is Salt Lake City where he has 4 wins.

Most 450SX Wins at a Single Venue

Most interesting, he’s climbing the leaderboard for most wins at a venue.

He’s tied for 6th all-time with Eli Tomac (Daytona) and Rick Johnson (Seattle Kingdome).
One more win in Arlington and he’ll tie McGrath/Carmichael/Stewart/Reed who each have 8 wins at Angel Stadium.

Key to the Championship (So Far) = Consistency

Hunter Lawrence leaves Seattle with the red plate for the second week in a row. His key to success is consistency. The only time he’s been outside the top 5 is qualifying at A1 (7th) and A2 (10th).

Qualifying = 7-4-10-3-4-5
Heats = 2-5-2-n/a-2-3
Mains = 4-2-2-2-2-4

Unfortunately for Hunter, he’s hasn’t ‘topped’ any one race. He simply has not been dominant at any point through 6 rounds.

Each of his primary competition, however, has at least one bad round…

Chase Sexton’s Woes Continue

Sexton’s short tenure at Kawasaki has not been entirely fruitful. There’s been some glimpses of greatest… 2x fastest qualifier (A1 and A2), a heat win (SD), and a win at Anaheim 2.

That’s just 1 podium in 6 starts and the lowest point total since his rookie 2021 season. Since the first triple crown race in Houston there’s been very little to celebrate. He was 2nd fastest in the first qualifying session in Glendale and every other time on the track he’s been 5th or worse.

The results are trending in the wrong direction and considering he normally has a lull in results mid-season, this trend is especially concerning.

Comparing this season to his first on KTM back in 2024 is the closet in his career. The 111 points scored was his second lowest total after this season and the results were inconsistent. That said, we had record breaking parity in 2024 so he was still ranked 2nd in the series 6 rounds in.

250 East Preview

Jo Shimoda is returning from a back injury in November and he’s ready to go. The 2025 SMX World Champion was expected to be a title favorite before the injury. Lots of questions here especially given he’s finished 10th (2020) and 4th (2025) in his 2 career Arlington starts.
Cole Davies was a surprise in the 2025 250 West division with 2 wins and 4 podiums in 9 starts as a rookie. The 18 year old from New Zealand has to be considered the title favorite.
Nate Thrasher has 6 wins in his 5 year career, including 1 win in each of the last 4 years. His challenge has been consistency. He’s finished outside the top 10 14x in 44 starts and only had more than 2 podiums in a season once (4 in 2023).
Pierce Brown finished his 2024 season with a 2-1 (for 1st) at the SMX World Championship Finals. Unfortunately, he started his 2025 250 East Supercross season with a season ending back injury.
Seth Hammaker came oh-so-close (180 Vialle, 177 Hammaker) to winning the 250 East division title even after finishing 17th at the second round of the East series in Detroit. Alongside Cole Davies, he’s a title favorite and expected to at least match his 2 wins and 3 podiums from 2025.
Drew Adams had 3 starts in his rookie 2025 West division campaign finishing 8th, 8th, and 10th. He also broke his collarbone at the second round in Glendale. As one of the winningest SMX Next riders (3 wins along with the 2023 SMX World All-Star title), he’s expected to be a contender this season.
Casey Cochran also had 3 starts in his rookie 2024 East division campaign and missed his entire 2025 campaign due to a broken femur. He then missed most of the 2025 Pro Motocross season with a shoulder injury.
Daxton Bennick has switched from Star Racing Yamaha to Husqvarna for 2026 – a return to his amateur roots with KTM. He has 2 career podiums – both at the opening rounds of the East division series in 2024 and 2025.
Jalek Swoll comes in as a contender but amazingly has just 1 podium in 34 starts over 4 seasons (missed the entire 2023 and 2025 seasons). He’ll be Triumph’s only rider. Austin Forkner is rumored to be staying on the 450 for the remainder of the year.
Coty Schock is the elder of the East at 28 years old. He finished 3rd (2024 East) and 6th (2025 West) the last two seasons since joining ClubMX. Notably he has 1 career podium – a 2nd last year at Arlington!

Milestones

450 Achieved Last Week

Eli Tomac tied Justin Brayton and Larry Ward for 5th all-time Supercross starts (190).
Eli Tomac (88) broke a tie with Jeremy McGrath (87) for 2nd most wins all-time SX+MX.
Cooper Webb (2,832 pts) passed Jason Anderson (2,822) for 7th all-time.
Cooper Webb tied Marvin Musquin (86) for 14th all-time 40 SX+MX podiums.

450s

Eli Tomac…

Eli Tomac (295) needs one more start to tie Justin Barcia (296) for 5th all-time SX+MX
Ken Roczen (80) needs +1 podium to tie Mike LaRocco for 6th all-time.
Ken Roczen (255) needs one more start to tie Heath Voss (256) for 10th all-time SX+MX.
Cooper Webb (79) needs +1 podium to tie Ken Roczen for 7th all-time.
Cooper Webb (32) wins SX+MX needs one more to tie Jett Lawrence (33)
With a win, Hunter Lawrence or Justin Cooper would be the 70th to win a Supercross main event (25th 1x winner).
With 296 SX+MX starts, Justin Barcia is 4 starts shy of 300. He’s ranked 6th all-time now. +1 start and he ties Larry Ward (297) for 5th and +4 starts and he joins 4 other riders to start 300 in the history of the sport.
With a win, Jason Anderson would be the 12th rider to win on 3 OEMs.
Jason Anderson (5,200 points) needs +4 to tie Larry Ward (5,204 pts) for 13th all-time 450 SX+MX.
Jason Anderson (53) needs 1 more podium to tie Jeff Stanton (54) for 13th all-time.

250 Achieved Last Week

Haiden Deegan tied Jeremy Martin (26) for 5th all-time 250 SX+MX wins
Haiden Deegan tied James Stewart and Ryan Villopoto (47) for 5th all-time 250SX+MX podiums
Michael Mosiman (964 points) passed Brock Sellards (960 pts) for 13th all-time 250SX
Cameron Mcadoo (939 points) needs +7 points to tie Josh Hansen (946 pts) for 15th all-time 250SX

250s

Jo Shimoda (884 points) needs 29 to tie Christian Craig (913 pts) for 17th all-time.
Notable that Jo Shimoda has the most starts (51 – tied 41st all-time) of all riders in the East division.

Trivia

Who was the 2025 Supercross champion? Cooper Webb.
Who was the 2025 250 West Supercross champion? Haiden Deegan.
Who was the 2024 250 East Supercross champion? Tom Vialle.
How many wins does Eli Tomac have in Seattle? 4.
How many wins does Cooper Webb have in Arlington? 7.
Who won the last 3 (2023-25) Arlington 450SX main events? Cooper Webb.
How many Supercross wins does Eli Tomac (2nd all-time) have? 56.
How many consecutive years has Eli Tomac won a premier class Supercross race? 12.
How many years has Ken Roczen won a premier class Supercross race? 11.
With 124 Supercross and Pro Motocross premier class wins, what rider has the most all-time wins? Ricky Carmichael.
Can you name the 3 rookies that have won the premier class Supercross title? Jeremy McGrath, Ryan Dungey, and Jett Lawrence.
Who qualified fastest last week at Seattle? Jorge Prado.
How many premier class Supercross titles has Cooper Webb won? 3.
Who won the 250 West division main event last weekend in Seattle? Haiden Deegan.
Was Max Anstie the oldest rider to ever win a main event at Anaheim 1? Yes.