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The 2026 Fast Power Index, In Season RD04.

By Fowlers Facts

Welcome to the We Went Fast Fast Power Index (FPI), a performance-based rating on a rider’s skills and how they’re trending over the last 4 rounds. It’s not a prediction model (we see you RC!) or a championship standings replacement. It’s a power ranking designed to measure a rider’s current competitive strength built for fans to bench race and for team managers to evaluate talent.

Special thanks to my co-conspirator Arich Knaub. In addition to being a good friend and great father, he’s a data scientist and engineer and helped with a chunk of the behind-the-scenes work.

450 FPI Rankings

Be sure to read What Really Happened? to understand the what actually went down in Houston last weekend.

Important Footnotes:
- In-season FPI will ultimately be based on the last 4 rounds of performances. 
- "Starts" include individual Triple Crown Races. There are 23 gate drops per 17-rd. season.
Last 4 Rounds

* Excludes riders with only one start in the last 4 rounds.

With 4 rounds completed and 6 gate drops, the Fast Power Index is now at full statistical power. That’s enough gate drops to truly measure a rider’s current competitive strength. Make note the FPI excludes any rider with only 1 start in the last 4 rounds – there’s just not enough data to support a comparative assessment. Let’s take a look who’s got the best speed, starts, and racecraft thru the first quarter of the season…

Top 10 Speed Rank
Individual strengths are surfacing as the season progresses.
  • Eli Tomac, at 33 years of age and riding a KTM for the first time in his career, has been the best-in-class with the best speed in qualifying and mains and 2nd best in the heat races.
  • Chase Sexton’s a notable 2nd fastest in the mains, 4th fastest in the heat races, and 2nd fastest in qualifying.
  • Hunter Lawrence sits second in the championship just -4 points back of Eli Tomac and is also second ranked in the FPI, but speed is ranked 4th. He’s 4th fastest in the mains, 5th fastest in the heats, and 4th fastest in qualifying. Obviously not bad, but not quite the same level as Tomac.
  • Notable: Cooper Webb has 6th best speed this so far this season. He got his first win in Houston, but the speed thru 4 rounds has not been spectacular. Fifth ranked in the mains, 12th best in the heats, and 7th best in qualifying. Last weekend in Houston he won in the most typical Cooper Webb fashion with 4-2-3 race finishes (and became the 4th rider in history to win a premier class triple crown event without winning a race). His speed was 6th fastest in race 1, 2nd fastest in race 2, and 6th fastest in race 3. You can never count Webb out, EVER.
  • Jorge Prado is ranked 5th in speed this season ! 6th ranked speed in qualifying, 2nd (!) in the heats, but only 8th in the main events. Main events are different and experience matters. No matter what, this is a HUGE improvement from a ride like Budds Creek where he qualified outside the top 40.
  • Justin Cooper is averaging 5th fastest in qualifying but only 9th fastest in the heats and 7th in the mains.
Top 10 Start Rank
Individual strengths are surfacing as the season progresses.
  • Hunter Lawrence tops the charts with an average of 2.5 on the 1st lap. He’s not been worse than 4th (Houston tc race 1) on the 1st lap all season!
  • Jason Anderson is averaging 4th on the first lap, putting himself and his Suzuki RM-Z 450 in great position each race. He’s been top 5 in 5 of 6 starts this season.
  • Eli Tomac averaged 8.1 on the 1st lap in 2024-25 and so far in 2026 he’s averaging 5th. 9th in Houston tc race 1 and 11th in Houston tc race 2 did not help his average though.
  • Chase Sexton has only rounded lap 1 in the top 5 in two races this season and he’s been outside the top 10 in 3 of the 6! He’s got some work to do here if he’s going to contend for the title.
450 FPI Key Stats Leaders
  • Main Event Fastest: Eli Tomac (2.0)
  • Main Event 1st Lap Position: Hunter Lawrence (2.5)
  • Podiums: Eli Tomac (5)
  • Heat Race Fastest: Ken Roczen (2.7)
  • Qualifying Fastest: Eli Tomac (2.2)

*slide table left to reveal more info.

250 FPI Rankings

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Important Footnotes:
- In-season FPI will ultimately be based on the last 4 rounds of performances. 
- "Starts" include individual Triple Crown Races. There are 23 gate drops per 17-rd. season.
Top 10 Speed Rank
  • Haiden Deegan has simply dominated, ranking 1st across qualifying, heats, and main events.
  • Levi Kitchen may sit 7th in the championship but he’s clearly the 2nd fastest rider out there.
  • Notable to see Ryder DiFrancesco with the 4th best speed but also that the rank gets worse from qualifying to heat to the main events. Not quite the same speed at the end of the day as he has at the beginning.
  • Cameron McAdoo has the 5th ranked speed but notably it improves as the day goes on – the veteran has speed when it matters (main event).
Top 10 Start Rank
  • Notable: Not a single 250 rider has more than 1 holeshot.
  • Cameron McAdoo has been 2nd or 3rd on the 1st lap in 5 of 6 starts this season, including his Houston holeshot (TC2)
  • Haiden Deegan mentioned being happy he finally got a start after getting the holeshot in tc race 1 last weekend in Houston. He’s been top 5 on the 1st lap in 5 of 6 mains this season.
  • Levi Kitchen broke the ‘curse’. He was 2nd, 1st, and 4th in his 3 starts in Houston last weekend.
  • Ryder DiFrancesco’s been hot and cold on starts – two in the top 5 but then two 15th or worse. He’ll need to clean that up to add more podiums this season.
250 FPI Key Stats Leaders
  • Main Event Fastest: Haiden Deegan (1.5)
  • Main Event 1st Lap Position: Cameron McAdoo (3.3)
  • Podiums: Haiden Deegan (5)
  • Heat Race Fastest: Haiden Deegan (1.0)
  • Qualifying Fastest: Haiden Deegan (1.2)

Glossary of Terms

Here’s a quick cheat sheet on definitions.

Speed Metrics
  • Main Fast Avg. – This is the average fastest lap rank in a main event.
  • Heat Fast Avg. – This is the average fastest lap rank in heat races.
  • Qualifying Avg. – This is the average qualifying rank.
Start Metrics
  • 1st Lap Pos. – This is the average position when crossing the finish line for the first time.
Results
  • Podiums – The count of top 3 finishes.
  • Starts – The number of times they started a race, either a main event or a triple crown race.
  • Race Minus – This is a race where a rider loses positions between the 1st lap and the finish. Typically represents when a rider has made a mistake. That said, it can also highlight riders where they are great starters but don’t have the speed to maintain position. In either case, it’s not optimal.

About the Fast Power Index (FPI)

Welcome to the We Went Fast Fast Power Index (FPI), a performance-based rating built from race results, context, and trend analysis. It’s not a prediction model (we see you RC!) or a championship standings replacement. It’s a power ranking designed to measure current competitive strength.

The FPI is a ranking of the best riders, based on performance, not hype, reputation or last year’s points.

This In-Season FPI will ultimately measure the a riders competitive strength over the last 4 rounds (the first three will be thin on data). Built for fans to bench race and for team managers to evaluate talent, the FPI reduces everything to a single number–backed by detailed on-track performance data. No practice track rumors. No social buzz. Just facts.

The In-season FPI (same as the Pre-season FPI) considers:

  • Recent race results
  • Win and podium frequency
  • Finish quality: where results came from, not just raw position
  • Race craft: includes qualifying, mains, individual Triple Crown races and East/West Showdowns

FPI does not assume improvement, decline, or “new bike magic.” Those things may happen, but they have to be proven on the track before the numbers move.

Special thanks to my co-conspirator Arich Knaub. In addition to being a good friend and great father, he’s a data scientist and engineer and helped with a chunk of the behind-the-scenes work.