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PREVIEW

2025 Budds Creek Research

By Brett Smith

Round 28: Budds Creek MX

The Mid-Atlantic stop on the Pro Motocross tour, Budds Creek Motocross Park features a challenging mix of ruts, hills, tacky soil and, in the summer, oppressive humidity. Mechanicsville, just under 50 miles from The White House, lies in Maryland’s southern neck between the Potomac River and the Chesapeake Bay and is home to over 1,000 Amish citizens.

  • Mike Larocco was the first 250/450 winner in 1994.
  • Ricky Carmichael is the Budds Creek 250/450 wins leader (8 for 8)
  • 4 different riders have 3 wins in the 125/250 class – James Stewart, Ryan Villopoto, Blake Baggett, and Steve Lamson. James Stewart and Ryan Villopoto are a perfect 6 for 6 and 3 overall wins.

More info and details at the Budds Creek Venue History page.

BUDDS CREEK HISTORY
Jett Lawrence and Honda celebrate his 2nd 450 Pro Motocross title. Photo: Align Media

450MX Facts

  • Jett Lawrence went 1-1 for 1st overall for the 18th time in 26 starts. Can he make it 19 on Saturday?!
  • Jett and Hunter Lawrence each have 6 holeshots this season – who will have the bragging rights when the last gate drops on the Pro Motocross season?
  • Jett Lawrence has now 8 of the 20 motos wire-to-wire. Eli Tomac (M2 High Point), Hunter Lawrnece (M1 Spring Creek) and Chase Sexton (M1 Washougal) are the only other riders to lead motos wire-to-wire this season.
  • HONDA: If Jett Lawrence (23 wins) were to win the overall this weekend, he’d tie Rick Johnson (24) for second most Premier class overall wins in Honda history. Ricky Carmichael has the most at 33.

250MX Facts

  • Haiden Deegan has been 1st or 2nd in 19 of 20 motos this season.
  • Haiden Deegan still has the potential to tie Broc Glover and Jeremy Martin for winningest Yamaha 125/250 rider in history (details below)
  • Garrett Marchbanks has a +3 point lead over Tom Vialle in the SMX Standings – AND – if he stays ahead of Vialle, Garrett will earn a career number!
  • Jo Shimoda needs +26 points to move into 11th all-time 125/250 Pro Motocross points. He’s currently 12th all-time behind Ryan Hughes.
  • Cole Davies (23-23 for 26th) and Landon Gibson (DNQ) had a rough Pro Motocross debuts. Nothing to be too concerned about… Jett Lawrence went 21-8 for 13th and Jo Shimoda 36-35 for 36 at Unadilla in 2019 in their debuts.

250MX Championship History & Clinch Scenarios

Haiden Deegan enters the final round of the Pro Motocross championship with a commanding 43 point lead. He likely feels pretty good about a 43 point lead given history…

  • 78% (21 of 27) of 125/250 riders with the lead entering the final round have won the title.
  • In the 27 times the 125/250 title has been decided at the final round, a 43 point lead is tied for the second biggest lead entering the final round.
    • In 1994 Doug Henry entered the final round with a +43 point lead over Steve Lamson. Henry went 3-16 for 9th overall while Steve Lamson went 1-2 for 2nd overall. Robbie Reynard won the overall.
    • Notable the biggest championship lead entering the final round is 1987 when Micky Dymond held a 49 point lead over George Holland. Dymond went 6-DNF for 13th overall and Holland went 2-3 for 2nd overall. Donny Schmidt won the overall.
Haiden Deegan has a +43 point lead over Jo Shimoda headed in Budds Creek. Photo: Octopi

But never say never. The 125/250 title has changed hands at the final round 6 times, albeit the biggest points deficit was only 9 points in 2001!

  • 1980 Broc Glover lost a 3 point lead to Mark Barnett. Glover went 3-6 for 3rd and Barnett 2-1 for 1st.
  • 1990 Mike Kiedrowski lost a 1 point lead to Guy Gooper. Kiedrowski went 3-1 for 2nd and Cooper 1-2 for 1st.
  • 1992 Mike LaRocco lost a 1 point lead to Jeff Emig. Larocco went 13-2 for 7th and Emig 1-1 for 1st.
  • 2000 Stephane Roncada lost a 6 point lead to Travis Pastrana. Roncada went 3-2 for 2nd and Pastrana 1-1 for 1st
  • 2001 Grant Langston lost a 9 point lead to Mike Brown. Langston went 2-32 for 9th and Brown 1-3 for 2nd.
  • 2010 Christophe Pourcel lost a 7 point lead to Trey Canard. Pourcel went 31-37 for 37th and Canard 4-3 for 3rd.
Jeff Emig collecting the #1 plate after winning the 1992 125MX championship.
250MX Clinch Scenarios

The magic number for Haiden Deegan is +25 point lead after moto 1.

  • Deegan needs to finish 15th (+7 points) or better in moto 1 to clinch the title.

Note Deegan holds a significant advantage in the tie breaker – 12 moto wins to Shimoda’s 5.

250MX Riders Still In Contention

*Reminder: all columns can be filtered by tapping black column headers

Other Notable Title Battles
  • Levi Kitchen holds a +7 point lead over Tom Vialle for 4th in the standings.
  • Seth Hammaker holds a +4 point lead over Maximus Vohland for 7th in the standings.
  • Drew Adams (15th – 157 points) and Parker Ross (17th – 134 points) are in a battle for rookie of the year.

450 SMX Points Battle

With 2 motos remaining, there are multiple battles across both classes, especially for the ever-critical top 20 cut-off.

  • The top 15 riders in the championship (Justin Cooper to Jason Anderson) have clinched a top 20 seeding in the SMX World Championship Finals.
  • Justin Cooper has clinched the #1 seed.
  • Jett Lawrence will likely clinch the#2 seed after the first moto at Budds Creek. Assuming neither Cooper Webb or Chase Sexton return from injury, he needs to score 3 points more than Malcolm Stewart.
  • Hunter Lawrence (471 pts – 6th) has a chance at securing the #3 seed if he scores 46 points (1-2 or 2-1) or more at Budds Creek. We’re projecting 2-2 for 2nd overall (515 pts) which will land him at #4 just 1 point behind the idle Cooper Webb (516 pts).
  • Malcolm Stewart (486 pts – 5th) is projected to score +25 pts (average of last 6 rounds) and pass the idle Chase Sexton (510 pts – 4th) but be passed by Hunter Lawrence (see above). However, if he scores a season best 30 points (7-7) he’d score 516 pts and finish 4th (loses tie to Cooper Webb). If he scores a season best 31 or more points he could finish 3rd in the SMX standings!
  • Eli Tomac (8th – 444 pts) will pass the inactive Aaron Plessinger (7th – 459 pts) with 15 points or more and finish 7th seed.
  • Jorge Prado (14th – 259 pts) and Dylan Ferrandis (15th – 254 pts) need to score 29 pts and 34 pts, respectively to pass the inactive Ken Roczen, Joey Savatgy, and Jason Anderson. We have them projected to pass Savatgy and Anderson but not Roczen.
  • We anticipate the inactive Justin Hill (194 pts – currently 18th) will finish in the 20th spot.
  • Mitchell Harrison (19th – 182 pts) and Valentin Guillod (20th – 179 pts) are projected to score their average season points/round and move into 18th and 19th.
  • We’re saying there’s a chance! Coty Schock (21st – 171 pts) needs to score +23 points to tie Justin Hill. That’d be enough to secure a top 20 spot as he’s got starts in both the Supercross and Pro Motocross season. Coty has scored 23+ points at three rounds this season.

*Reminder: all columns can be filtered by tapping black column headers

450SMX Points PROJECTIONS (After 27 rounds)
Jo Shimoda (1-1) at Unadilla, earned his 6th career 250MX victory Photo: Align Media

250 SMX Points Battles

  • The top 14 riders in the championship (Deegan to Austin Forkner) have clinched a top 20 seeding in the SMX World Championship Finals.
  • Haiden Deegan and Jo Shimoda have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds.
  • Garrett Marchbanks (465 pts) and Tom Vialle (462 pts) are separated by just 3 points. This is a 2 point swing for the SMX Finals!
  • 7th Maximus Vohland, 9th Levi Kitchen and 9th Jordon Smith are separated by just 8 points. Julien Beaumer in 6th is just 13 points ahead.
  • We’re projecting Cole Davies (currently 19th – 171 pts) and RJ Hampshire (currently 18th – 173 pts) to tie for the 19th and 20th spots and finish with 173 points. This assumes Cole Davies scores 2 points (21-21) at Budds Creek. Lux Turner needs to score 18 points (13-13) to tie Davies and Hampshire and secure the final slot (by virtue of racing both SX and MX he would edge out Hampshire).
    • Lux Turner has scored more than 18 points once this season. He went 13-11 for 14th overall at round 6 at RedBud.
    • Still in play is Dilan Schwartz (currently 20th – 167 pts) who’s averaging 16 pts per round this season. We’re projecting he’ll finish 18th.

250SMX Points PROJECTIONS (After 27 rounds)

*Reminder: all columns can be filtered by tapping black column headers

Jett Lawrence Continues All-Time Climb

Jett Lawrence is already the only rider in the history of the sport to win the premier class Supercross, Pro Motocross, and SuperMotocross championships. But the last of those has only been around for 2 years so it’s not a great comparison to the all-time greats of the sport.

The following gives a good benchmark for why Jett Lawrence is making a bid to be one of the greatest to race a dirt bike. Here’s a sample of stats that highlight his climb into the all-time ranks of the sport.

2x 250/450 Pro Motocross Champions

Jett Lawrence won his second 450 Pro Motocross title. He joins 13 other riders who have won 2 or more 250/450 titles. He’s now tied with Rick Johnson for 2nd most on a Honda. He needs 1 more to tie Jeff Stanton and Ricky Carmichael for most 450 Pro Motocross titles on a Honda.

Premier Class Supercross and Pro Motocross Titles

Jett Lawrence is the 16th rider to win in both disciplines – Supercross and Pro Motocross.

Jett Lawrence #18, Hunter Lawrence #96 and Justin Cooper #32 at the 2025 Unadilla Pro Motocross. Photo: Align.
All-Time Ranks – Pro Motocross

He’s securing into the top 10 in the most important categories – wins, moto wins, and podiums! And he’s ahead of the win pace of The GOAT – Ricky Carmichael (won 19 of first 26 starts).

All-Time Ranks – Supercross

In just 2 seasons and 21 starts (missed most of 2025 with an ACL injury), he’s ascended the ranks rapidly. That’s what happens when you win nearly half (9) of your first 21 races – only Hannah (11), McGrath (10), Stewart (10), and Reed (9) have been able to match that pace!

Marchbanks Marches Forward

Garrett Marchbanks entered Unadilla with the most passes by any rider, any class, in the last decade. Garrett then went out and made another +26 passes (13 each moto) at Unadilla – the 2nd most at a race this season behind his +42 passes at RedBud.

Garrett Marchbanks has passed 182 riders this season. Photo: Octopi
Most Passes – Last Decade (2016-25) – 250MX Season
  • Garrett Marchbanks has gained +182 positions in 20 motos AND maybe most impressive not lost positions in any moto.
    • It’s all about start position and speed. Garrett averages 15th on the first lap BUT averages the 6th fastest lap.
  • Dilan Schwartz has gained +160 positions in 15 motos this season BUT he’s also lost -69 positions in the other 5 motos. This is not a surprise given he averages 21st on the first lap but has the 14th fastest lap.
  • Speaking of Dilan Schwartz, he’s gained a Net Position total of +383 over the last 6 years – most of anyone dating back to 2015.
  • Pos Gained: Positions gained in motos where rider moved forward
  • Race Pos +: Motos where rider gained positions
  • Pos Lost: Positons lost in motos where rider lost positions
  • Race Pos -: Motos where rider lost positions
  • Net Pos Chg: Positions gained less positions lost.

Eli Tomac Joins the 10,000 pts. Club

All-Time Eli joined Mike LaRocco as the 2nd rider in the history of the sport to score 10K or more points with his 3-3 for 3rd overall at Unadilla. If that’s not enough, he passed Ricky Carmichael for 2nd all-time in premier class Pro Motocross points as well.

Eli Tomac is in the 10k points club. Photo: Octopi
  • It’s not just accumulation. He’s 8th all-time in starts but he’s averaging 27.4 pts/start. Only Ricky Carmichael has averaged more points/start in the top 20 all-time points scorers.
  • On current pace, he’s likely to pass Larocco for most points scored in the history of the sport at the 8th or 9th round of the 2026 Supercross season.
  • Eli’s (109) five wins shy of tying James Stewart (114) for 2nd most wins all-time.
  • Eli (226) has the most podiums in the history of the sport.
Most Points Scored SX+MX All Classes Combined

*All columns can be filtered by tapping black column headers

Haiden Deegan’s Last Chance

There are a lot of fun things to watch for with two motos remaining in the 250MX chapter of Haiden Deegan’s Pro Motocross career.

  • He’s one last chance to now tie Jett Lawrence (14) for overall wins.
  • Note how similar the win percentage is for J. Lawrence (39%), Broc Glover (37%) and Haiden Deegan (39%).
Most 125/250MX Wins All-Times
More Haiden Deegan ‘Things to Watch For’
  • Deegan is now in sole possession of 10th on the all-time moto wins list (25 moto wins). He could tie Jeff Emig (27) this weekend at Budds Creek.
  • Deegan would need to get his 8th career 1-1 for 1st overall day.
  • YAMAHA: With 1 more overall win, he would tie Broc Glover and Jeremy Martin (14) for most 125/250 overall wins in Yamaha history.
  • YAMAHA: With 2 more moto wins, Deegan would tie Jeff Emig (27) for 3rd most moto wins on a Yamaha 125/250 in history. No worries, Broc Glover (33), your record is safe!
  • NOTABLE: Deegan is already the winningest Yamaha 125/250 rider in history. His 20 SX+MX wins (ignoring SMX) is 2 more than Cooper Webb, Jeremy Martin and Kevin Windham.

WMX Update (after 5 of 6 rounds)

  • The Unadilla win makes 4 in a row for Lachlan Turner and 7 of 9 moto wins! She maintains here 24 point lead over Charli Cannon in the championship after splitting moto wins last week.
  • 3 riders remain in contention for the WMX title entering the final round – Lachlan Turner (217 points), Charli Cannon (-24 pts), and Mikayla Nielsen (-35 pts).

CLINCH SCENARIOS:

  • Lachlan Turner needs a +25 point lead after moto 1 to clinch the title.
  • Turner can clinch after moto 1 by finishing 7th or better and beating Charli Cannon.

RECAP HIGHLIGHTS

2025 WMX Schedule and Results

*Thunder Valley was a single moto event