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2026 St. Louis Supercross Research

By Brett Smith

Welcome to the Gateway to the West!

Once an important fur trading hub, St. Louis is one of the most historic cities in the United States; host of the 1904 Olympic Games and World’s Fair and location of the nation’s first gas station (1905), Mound City didn’t welcome its first Supercross until 1996, a race that will forever be know as the night “The Streak” ended. St Louis has hosted some iconic races including…

  • Jeremy McGrath’s 1996 13 race win streak ended when Jeff Emig won his second career main event.
  • Ricky Carmichael won his 48th and final Supercross in 2006.
  • James Stewart won his 50th and final Supercross in 2014.
  • Jan. 2020: Ken Roczen ended a 3 year drought (Jan. 2017 to Jan. 2020) when he captured his 12th career victory.
  • Eli Tomac swept the 2024 Triple Crown (after myriad red flag penalties) – the third rider in history to do so.

450 Rider Facts

  • 4 points between 1st and 2nd after 11 rounds; it was 11 in 2025, 16 in 2024 and tied up in 2023 (Tomac/Webb)
  • Ken Roczen (7) has led the most main events this season. Eli Tomac and Hunter Lawrence have each led 6. Roczen (102) has also led the most laps.
  • Ken Roczen has been fastest in the main event 3 times this season. He and Eli Tomac (also 3), lead the class.
  • Ken Roczen and Cooper Webb are now the only riders to finish in the top 10 in all 11 rounds.
  • One month from his 32nd birthday, Ken Roczen is the 14th oldest rider to win a 450SX.
  • 7 races have been won by riders aged 30+. The most ever in a single season is 8 (2023)
  • Eli Tomac and Hunter Lawrence have finished in the top 5 in 10 of the 11 rounds (most).
  • Chase Sexton has only led laps (15) in one main event this season – his A2 win. The last time he’s only led 1 main thru 11 rounds was his rookie 2021 season. He had led laps in 8 mains thru 11 rounds last year!
  • Malcolm Stewart was the 8th rider to get on the podium this season
  • Jorge Prado has 5 holeshots in 8 starts – 63% of the time! The three other times he’s not holeshot he’s been 10th (SD), 7th (A2), and 9th (Glendale).
  • Eli Tomac is now 1 of 5 riders to race 300+ premier class SX+MX starts.

250 Rider Facts

  • Cole Davies gave Yamaha its 150th 250SX win.
250SX Wins by OEM

Excludes non-pts. paying E/W Showdown wins.

  • Haiden Deegan and Ernesto Fonseca each have 12 wins, most by a Yamaha rider.
250SX Winningest Yamaha Riders

Excludes non-pts. paying E/W Showdown wins.

  • A 13th win for Haiden Deegan would move him into a tie for 3rd all-time. It would also move him into a tie for 2nd most wins on a single manufacturer. James Stewart (16 – Kawasaki) has the most 250SX wins for a manufacturer. There are two other riders with 13 wins for a manufacturer (Austin Forkner: 13, Kawasaki; Jett Lawrence: 13, Honda).
  • Fun Fact: There’s Only 1 rider has won 250SX mains on 4 different OEMs: Nate Ramsey.
  • Cole Davies still doesn’t have a holeshot but he’s 7/7 in being fastest in the whoops.
  • Cole Davies hasn’t been fastest qualifier this season (he’s been 2nd fastest 3x), but he’s had the fastest single lap in the last 3 main events.
  • Seth Hammaker has been fastest qualifier 3x this season, but only fastest in the main event once.
  • Levi Kitchen went 1-1-1 for 1st overall here in St Louis 2024.
  • Henry Miller had a career best 5th in Detroit (previous best was 6th, Atlanta 2023). He also made first career main event in Detroit back in 2016).
  • Nick Romano, 7th in Detroit was one position shy of his career best, (6th in Triple Crown Indy 2024)
  • Evan Ferry career best 11th in Detroit in 4th career start (previous best was 20th in Indy)

3 Way Battle Headed to St Louis

KTM still hasn’t won in Detroit and Eli Tomac said he’s in a “mid-season slump”, but he’s now the series leader for the second time this season (BTW, if being on the podium in 5 of the last 6 rounds is a slump, that’s impressive!)

Keys to the Championship (so far)
  • Eli Tomac
    • More wins than the competition.
    • Mid-season slump = hasn’t led a lap in last two rounds and finished 3rd and 5th (Birmingham and Detroit)
    • He finished 12th at Glendale
  • Hunter Lawrence
    • Series leading 3.0 1st lap position
    • Has finished top 4 in 10 of 11 rounds.
    • He finished 18th in Detroit
  • Ken Roczen
    • Led the most main events this season
    • Speed – series leading 2.8 average fast lap rank in the mains
    • Seattle (3rd to 10th – crash) is pivotal, but also Arlington (1st to 4th) and Daytona (1st to 3rd) were races he lost points directly to his title rivals

Ken Roczen’s On Fire (and hasn’t faded since 2022)

After Birmingham, Ken Roczen chirped back at the chatter that the second half of his Supercross seasons aren’t as good as the first half.

People still think I’m always just dropping off and it’s not fair. Because it’s been a minute since I’ve done it. People just don’t seem to be able to let it go.

– Ken Roczen, post race Birmingham

He then came out in Detroit and delivered a masterclass, leading 22 of 23 laps en route to his 25th career win. A fire had been lit. He’s not happy with the perception that he fades in the 2nd half of the series. So where’s the perception that he fades come from!? We went searching…

2026 1st Half vs. 2nd Half (so far)

Looking at the first two rounds of the 2nd half, he’s on fire. Two podiums and a statement win in Detroit!

2014-25 Career Performance: 1st Half vs. 2nd Half Stats

First half is rounds 1-9 and second half is 10-17.

Multiple Wins in the 2nd Half
  • 2026 is the first time Roczen has gotten a win in the second half of the season since 2021 (Atlanta 2)
  • Roczen has won two races in the second half of the season once before: 2016 (you could make an argument for 2020 when he won rounds 9 and 15).
  • He’s won two races in the first half of the season six times: 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021

So it’s not often he wins in the second half and it’s been 5 years…

1st vs. 2nd Half – Starts
  • He’s missed 39% (37 of 96) of the second half starts due to injury.
  • He’s missed only 8% (9 of 108) of the first half starts.

Very clearly part of the perception is because he’s missed nearly half of the 2nd half starts in his career. But this is not fading. This is simply not able to race. There’s a very big difference.

1st vs. 2nd Half – Avg Finish Position
  • His second half average finish position was 12% worse than first half (5.0 vs. 5.6).

It’s not that big of a difference.

1st vs. 2nd Half – Wins and Podiums
  • 78% of his wins (18 of his 23) were in the first half of the season.
    • Maybe more interesting is that he’s won 18% of his first half starts (18 wins in 99 starts) and only 8% (5 wins in 59 starts) of his second half starts.
  • 68% of his podiums (51 of 75) were in the first half of the season.
    • Same as above, he’s been on the podium in 52% (51 of 99) of his first half starts and only 41% (24 of 59) of his second half starts.

This is notable and easy to point as why the perception exists. He’s won and podiumed a LOT more in the first half of the season, even relative to starts which normalizes for the fact that he’s missed 39% of the second half starts.

All-Time Supercross Ranks – Premier Class

But here’s the thing – Ken Roczen is one of the all-time greats (especially when you look at the whole resume). Against absolutely all odds he’s delivered on longevity+performance. He’s 2 wins shy of top 10 all-time in all of the 4 major stats categories! If he gets two more wins, he’d join just 3 riders – Chad Reed, Eli Tomac, and Jeremy McGrath – that are top 10 in each of these stats (and when St. Louis is done, Jeremy McGrath will be bumped out of the top 10 starts by Ken)!

450 SX+MX Wins List – Premier Class

Speaking of his whole resume… while Roczen sits 2 wins shy of the top 10 in 450SX wins, he now owns sole possession of 10th on the combined SX+MX all-time list.

Since 2022 – Average Finish by Half

Last, but maybe most important, to his point in the post-race press scrum… “the last time I faded in a season was 2022, honestly, let it go”. We can do one better – his average finish in the second half has been better every season since 2022 (excludes 2023 SLC and 2024 Nashville – both injury-based DNFs).

Other Roczen Stats…

Roczen is 3rd in the standings, -14 in points. He’s been this close twice before after 11 rounds.

  • 2021: 2nd in points (-12)
  • 2020: 2nd in points (-8)

Suzuki’s Premier Class Supercross Greats

The Detroit win was Suzuki’s first in Ford Field since 2014 and the first time they had won more than one race in a season since 2016 (Roczen won 5 rounds)

  • Roczen is now 4 wins behind Mark Barnett for most wins on a Suzuki all-time.
  • And three behind his former team owner, Ricky Carmichael.
Most SX Premier Class Wins (Suzuki)
  • Notably Ken has the most premier class SX podiums for Suzuki (42), scored the most points (1,500) for Suzuki, and sits 2nd all-time in starts behind Larry Ward.
Ken Roczen 450SX Suzuki Rankings

Suzuki’s also won the premier class Supercross title 4 times – Mark Barnett (1981), Ricky Carmichael (2005-06) and Ryan Dungey (2010). How pumped would everyone be if Ken Roczen won the 2026 Supercross title!?! No question it’d silence the critics and arguably one of the best comeback stories in the history of Supercross.

450SX All-Time podiums – Another Try!

  • Eli Tomac (110) is one away from tying the king of Supercross Jeremy McGrath
  • Ken Roczen (83) moved into 6th all-time and is now 4 behind Ricky Carmichael.
450SX All-Time Podium Count

Malcolm Stewart: Trending Hot

First podium of the season and the first since Salt Lake City last year. He came into the season with the momentum of a Paris-Bercy win but a horrendous crash at A1 left him with a shoulder injury. Amazingly he didn’t miss a round.

His perseverance is paying off…

Season Standings Progression
  • He’s gone from 22nd in the standings after round 1 to 15th after round 5 and now sits 8th.
Last 4 Rounds
  • Based on this trend, Malcolm should win this weekend in St Louis (that’s not a prediction).

Mulligan!?

Haiden Deegan looks to get his 13th win, again.

Worth noting that if we did include the non-points paying east/west showdowns, James Stewart would have 18 wins and Nate Ramsey would be a clear #2 rank with 15 wins.

Does not include non-pts paying e/w wins.

250SX All-Time Wins

Deegan’s Dominant Season – Can He Clinch 2 Rounds Early?

With Haiden Deegan (and Yamaha’s) having won 5 of 7 rounds, Cole Davies 3 of 5, and Yamaha now having won 10 of 11 total rounds, this has been a season dominated by the Blu Cru.

That said, it’s Kawasaki that’s historically dominated with 6 seasons of 10+ wins. Notably 3 of the 6 they didn’t win either title!

Most Dominant 250SX Seasons (OEM)

There are 10 seasons where a manufacturer has won both 250SX titles. The last was Yamaha in 2021 with Colt Nichols in the East and Justin Cooper in the West.

  • Kawasaki: 2010, 2007, 2005, 2004
  • Honda: 1991, 2012, 2023
  • Suzuki: 1994, 1987
  • Yamaha: 2021

But what’s most interesting is whether Haiden Deegan can join an elite crew of 250 riders that have clinched the title 2 rounds early.

Clinch 2 Rounds Early?
  • It’s been 27 years since a 125/250 rider has clinched 2 rounds early!
Clinch Scenarios
  • Deegan holds a…
    • +42 point lead over Anstie
    • +47 point lead over Kitchen
    • +55 point lead over DiFrancesco
  • Deegan needs +50 point lead leaving St Louis.
    • Deegan has to be +8 pts ahead of Anstie (Deegan 1st vs Anstie 5th)
    • Deegan has to be + 3 pts ahead of Kitchen (Deegan 1st vs. Kitchen 2nd)

Milestones

450 Achieved Last Week
  • Ken Roczen (46) broke a tie with Jeff Ward for 10th most premier class wins (SX+MX).
  • Ken Roczen (6,556 pts) passed Ricky Carmichael (6,536 pts) for 5th all-time premier class SX+MX points.
  • Cooper Webb (151) tied Davi Millsaps for 15th all-time starts.
  • Malcolm Stewart (132) tied Dean Wilson and Damon Huffman for 20th all-time starts.
450s
  • Eli Tomac…
  • Eli Tomac (113) needs 1 more win to tie James Stewart (114) for the 2nd most wins all-time (all classes, SX+MX).
  • Cooper Webb (32) wins SX+MX needs one more to tie Jett Lawrence (33)

250 Achieved Last Week

  • Yamaha (Cole Davies) got its 150th win (excluding E/W non-pts paying races)
250s
  • Haiden Deegan (26 SX+MX wins) needs 1 more to tie Jett Lawrence (27) for 4th all-time.
  • Haiden Deegan (48 SX+MX podiums) needs 1 more to tie James Stewart (49) for 5th all-time.