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PREVIEW

2026 SMX Points Projections

By Fowlers Facts

UPDATED THROUGH RD 8 WASHOUGAL (SMX RD 25)

It’s that time of the year where we start looking at where riders will finish in the SMX Season Points. As manufacturers, teams, and riders have learned over the last 3 years, these standings are critical for getting those valuable seeding points entering the SMX Playoffs.

If you don’t think seeding points matter, consider this…

  • Hunter Lawrence finished 2nd in both 2024 and 2025. He lost the 2024 title by tiebreaker and the 2025 title by 15 points. In 2025, had he finished 2nd in moto 1 of the SMX finale instead of 3rd, he wins the title!
  • Haiden Deegan won the 2023 250 world championship by just 5 points over Jo Shimoda. Those 5 points represented a +$250K payday.
  • In 2024, 2nd through 4th in the 250 class was decided by 2 points. Tom Vialle (132 points and $250K), Pierce Brown (131 pts and $150K), and Jo Shimoda (130 pts and $100K)

Every. Point. Counts.

450SMX Points Projection – Top 50

Hunter Lawrence clinched the #1 seed for the SMX playoffs with 3 rounds remaining. Credit: Garth Milan // Red Bull Content Pool // Round 23 Southwick 2026

There are a LOT of variables in play…

  • Injuries are at the forefront. Garrett Marchbanks, Justin Cooper, Aaron Plessinger, Malcolm Stewart, Chase Sexton, and Christian Craig all sit in the top 20.
  • There’s also riders that haven’t lined up for Pro Motocross but are still in the hunt… namely Ken Roczen, Joey Savatgy, and Justin Hill.

Given all the unknowns, we’ve done our best to make these projections as accurate as possible.

  • Hunter Lawrence clinched the #1 seed after the first moto at Washougal. He’ll enter the SMX World Championship Finals with 25 points.
  • Cooper Webb (#2 seed) has a +36 point advantage over Jorge Prado (#3 seed). Bad news for Webb – Prado cut the gap by +37 points in the last 3 rounds. At this pace, Prado will be the #2 seed.
  • Jett Lawrence has gone from the 10th seed two rounds ago to the 5th seed leaving Washougal. We anticipate he’ll pass Dylan Ferrandis and be the 4th seed. Notably that Jett Lawrence won the 2024 SMX World Championship as a 6 seed via a tie.
  • Haiden Deegan was a 17th seed 3 rounds ago and is now a 10 seed and projected to finish 8th. This assumes Justin Cooper returns for the final 3 rounds though so it’s possible he moves into the 7th seed.
  • Ken Roczen (currently 6th) and Chase Sexton (currently 10th) are expected to drop to 11th and 13th with neither expected to lineup before the end of Pro Motocross.
  • Other Noteworthy Riders to Watch…
    • Mikkel Haarup moved into 20th position at Washougal and is expected to finish 16th.
    • Justin Barcia sits 19th now and is expected to finish in 15th.
    • Justin Hill sits 18th right now and will likely drop to 21st.
    • Mitchell Harrison sits 21st and is projected to finish 19th… but he needs to score +37 points over the last 3 rounds. He’s scored more than that twice in other 3 round periods this season.

250SMX Points Projections – Top 50

Cole Davies won the 2026 East Division championship, he’s leading the Pro Motocross championship, so it’s no surprise he’s projected to be the #1 seed. Credit: Octopi Media // Monster Media.
  • No surprise, injuries are factor in the 250’s as well. Seth Hammaker is out and will drop from a high of 2nd at rounds 19 and 20 (Hangtown and Thunder Valley) and finish 9th.
  • Reigning SMX World Champion Jo Shimoda went into last weekend sitting 5th. Assuming he doesn’t return to Pro Motocross given the most recent new of his collarbone break, we expect he’ll finish 11th.

Riders to Watch:

  • Cole Davies has the potential to clinch the #1 seed at Budds Creek. He currently holds a +47 point lead and needs to add another 3 in the next 2 rounds to do so.
  • Julien Beaumer and Chance Hymas are currently tied with 268 points. Beaumer owns the tie breaker with more 2nd place finishes this season (they each have 1 win). They’ll both pass Hammaker and Shimoda who are out with injuries.
  • Kayden Minear (currently 11th) is projected to finish 7th. Whether he can be 6th seed is on him delivering Southwick/Spring Creek results vs. a meh Washougal showing.
  • Casey Cochran (currently 21st) is expected to finish as a 17th seed.
  • Drew Adams (currently 24th) is projected to finish as the 21st seed but a mere 2 points off the injured Nick Romano. Watch this space to see if he can break into the top 20.

Note there’s a lot of potential battles between 14th-25th seeds and given the inconsistency of the riders this season, there’s likely to be some great battles for the top 20 in the last couple rounds of the SMX League regular season.