PREVIEW
2026 SMX Points Projections
By
UPDATED THROUGH RD 8 WASHOUGAL (SMX RD 25)
It’s that time of the year where we start looking at where riders will finish in the SMX Season Points. As manufacturers, teams, and riders have learned over the last 3 years, these standings are critical for getting those valuable seeding points entering the SMX Playoffs.
If you don’t think seeding points matter, consider this…
- Hunter Lawrence finished 2nd in both 2024 and 2025. He lost the 2024 title by tiebreaker and the 2025 title by 15 points. In 2025, had he finished 2nd in moto 1 of the SMX finale instead of 3rd, he wins the title!
- Haiden Deegan won the 2023 250 world championship by just 5 points over Jo Shimoda. Those 5 points represented a +$250K payday.
- In 2024, 2nd through 4th in the 250 class was decided by 2 points. Tom Vialle (132 points and $250K), Pierce Brown (131 pts and $150K), and Jo Shimoda (130 pts and $100K)
Every. Point. Counts.
450SMX Points Projection – Top 50
There are a LOT of variables in play…
- Justin Cooper, Aaron Plessinger, Malcolm Stewart, and Christian Craig all sit in the top 20 and all returned from injury at Unadilla. None had a particular spectacular day though Justin Cooper hauled in a critical 24 points.
- There’s also riders that haven’t lined up for Pro Motocross but are still in the hunt… namely Ken Roczen, Joey Savatgy, and Justin Hill.
Given all the unknowns, we’ve done our best to make these projections as accurate as possible.
- Hunter Lawrence clinched the #1 seed after the first moto at Washougal. He’ll enter the SMX World Championship Finals with 25 points.
- Cooper Webb has clinched at least a top 3 seed as of last week in Unadilla.
- That said, Jorge Prado is within 16 points and likely to pass him for the #2 seed at the final round at Ironman.
- Jett Lawrence is now within 17 points of Dylan Ferrandis and likely to finish the #4 seed when it’s all said and done. Jett left round 1 as a #26 seed.
- Haiden Deegan is up to 10th now and projected to finish 7th seed – passing Eli Tomac, Justin Cooper, and Ken Roczen who are all within 13 points leaving Unadilla.
- Keep an eye on 6th through 11th. Separated by 63 points, but among these positions there’s the potential for important point swings.
- Ken Roczen (currently 7th) and Chase Sexton (currently 12th) are expected to finish 11th and 12th with neither expected to lineup before the end of Pro Motocross.
- Battle of the Bump: Mitchell Harrison (166 points, 21st rank) and Justin Hill (188 points, 20th rank) is a critical battle. If Harrison can score 22 points in the last two rounds, he avoids the LCQ through-out the Playoffs.
250SMX Points Projections – Top 50
- No surprise, injuries are factor in the 250’s as well. Seth Hammaker is out and will drop from a high of 2nd at rounds 19 and 20 (Hangtown and Thunder Valley) and finish 9th.
- Reigning SMX World Champion Jo Shimoda went into last weekend sitting 5th. Assuming he doesn’t return to Pro Motocross given the most recent new of his collarbone break, we expect he’ll finish 11th.
Riders to Watch:
- Cole Davies has the potential to clinch the #1 seed at Budds Creek. He currently holds a +53 point lead and can lose 3 points to Kitchen and still clinch this weekend.
- Chance Hymas, Carson Mumford, and Julien Beaumer are separated by 18 points with 4 motos to go. It’s a potential two point swing to be 4th vs. 6th seed.
- Nate Thrasher, Kayden Minear, and Michael Mosiman are separated by 25 points. A bit of a spread but it’s still possible for shifts among them.
- Casey Cochran (currently 22nd) was previously expected to finish as a 17th seed but is now looking at a 40 point gap to the top 20.
- Drew Adams (currently 21st) is projected to finish as the 19th seed (up +2 positions from the last projection). Watch closely here as he needs to score 38 points over the last two rounds to hit 19th.