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PREVIEW

2026 SMX Points Projections

By Fowlers Facts

It’s that time of the year where we start looking at where riders will finish in the SMX Season Points. As manufacturers, teams, and riders have learned over the last 3 years, these standings are critical for getting those valuable seeding points entering the SMX Playoffs.

If you don’t think seeding points matter, consider this…

  • Hunter Lawrence finished 2nd in both 2024 and 2025. He lost the 2024 title by tiebreaker and the 2025 title by 15 points. In2025, had he finished 2nd in moto 1 instead of 3rd, he wins the title!
  • Haiden Deegan won the 2023 250 world championship by just 5 points over Jo Shimoda. Those 5 points represented a +$250K payday.
  • In 2024, 2nd through 4th in the 250 class was decided by 2 points. Tom Vialle (132 points and $250K), Pierce Brown (131 pts and $150K), and Jo Shimoda (130 pts and $100K)

Every. Point. Counts.

450SMX Points Projection – Top 50

Hunter Lawrence is likely to clinch the #1 seed as early as round 25 at Washougal. Credit: Garth Milan // Red Bull Content Pool // Round 23 Southwick 2026

There are a LOT of variables in play…

  • Injuries are at the forefront. Eli Tomac returns this weekend at Spring Creek but it’s unknown when/if we’ll see Justin Cooper, Aaron Plessinger, Malcolm Stewart, Chase Sexton, and Christian Craig.
  • There’s also riders that haven’t lined up for Pro Motocross but are still in the hunt… Ken Roczen, Joey Savatgy, Justin Hill, Shane McElrath, and Jason Anderson.

Given all the unknowns, we’ve done our best to make these projections as accurate as possible.

  • Hunter Lawrence could clinch the #1 seed as early as Washougal and if he misses it by a point or two he’ll surely wrap it up at Unadilla.
  • Cooper Webb (#2 seed) has a +63 point advantage over Jorge Prado (#3 seed) but Jorge is averaging +11 points per round right now. This battle is likely to come down to the final round of the season.
  • Jett Lawrence (currently 10th) is expected to make it to the #4 seed but Garrett Marchbanks is projected to fall just 6 points shy. It’s possible Jett’s not able to pass him in the standings if Garrett has a breakout moto or two.
  • Eli Tomac (currently 9th) and Dylan Ferrandis (currently 6th) are projected to finish 6th and 7th but separated by just 2 points. This will be interesting to track down the stretch.
  • Haiden Deegan is currently 17th in the standings and projected to finish 9th. Depending on the return of Justin Cooper (we’ve got him back for Washougal), it’s possible Haiden could make it as high as 8th.
  • Ken Roczen (currently 4th) and Chase Sexton (currently 7th) are expected to drop to 11th and 12th with neither expected to lineup before the end of Pro Motocross.
  • Other Noteworthy Riders to Watch…
    • Mikkel Haarup sits 21st now and is expected to get as high as 15th.
    • Justin Barcia sits 23rd now and is expected to finish in 17th.
    • Justin Hill sits 16th right now and will likely drop to 21st.
    • Similarly, Shane McElrath is currently 18th and will drop to 24th.

250SMX Points Projections – Top 50

Cole Davies won the 2026 East Division championship, he’s leading the Pro Motocross championship, so it’s no surprise he’s projected to be the #1 seed. Credit: Octopi Media // Monster Media.
  • No surprise, injuries are factor in the 250’s as well. Seth Hammaker is out and will drop from a high of 2nd at rounds 19 and 20 (Hangtown and Thunder Valley) and finish 9th.
  • Reigning SMX World Champion Jo Shimoda went into last weekend sitting 5th. Assuming he’s able to return after the break for the last 3 rounds, we think he’ll finish 4th.

Riders to Watch:

  • Julien Beaumer (currently 11th) missed all of Supercross but a strong Pro Motocross season has him making it as high as 5th seed.
  • Kayden Minear (currently 13th) and Chance Hymas (currently 13th) are projected to tie in points and the 6th seed. Keep an eye on both of these riders as they’ve been getting stronger and stronger as the season progresses.
  • Casey Cochran (currently 24th) is expected to break into the top 20 at Washougal and finish the season as the 16th seed.
  • Drew Adams (currently 32nd) is projected to finish as the 22nd seed. He’ll have motivation late in the season to put in a break out moto or two.

Note there’s a lot of potential battles between 16th-25th seeds and given the inconsistency of the riders this season, there’s likely to be some great battles for the top 20 in the last couple rounds of the SMX League regular season.