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We Went Fast
FAST FACT

The 2026 450SX Fast Power Index, Pre-Season Edition.

By Fowlers Facts

Welcome to the We Went Fast Fast Power Index (FPI), a performance-based rating built from race results, context, and trend analysis. It’s not a prediction model (we see you RC!) or a championship standings replacement. It’s a power ranking designed to measure current competitive strength.

The FPI is a ranking of the best riders, based on performance, not hype, reputation or last year’s points.

This Pre-season FPI is a baseline that reflects what riders have shown over the last two seasons and what they’re carrying into 2026. Built for fans to bench race and for team managers to evaluate talent, the FPI reduces everything to a single number–backed by detailed on-track performance data. No practice track rumors. No social buzz. Just facts.

The Pre-season FPI considers:

  • Recent race results
  • Win and podium frequency
  • Finish quality: where results came from, not just raw position
  • Race craft: includes qualifying, mains, individual Triple Crown races and East/West Showdowns

FPI does not assume improvement, decline, or “new bike magic.” Those things may happen, but they have to be proven on the track before the numbers move.

Below is the initial Fast Power Index. These rankings are locked but check back weekly for in-season FPI movement.

Special thanks to my co-conspirator Arich Knaub. In addition to being a good friend and great father, he’s a data scientist and engineer and helped with a chunk of the behind-the-scenes work.

450 Preseason FPI Rankings

Whether you love or hate this, join the conversation on Instagram or Twitter, @wewentfast

Important Footnotes:
- Pre-season FPI is based on 2024-2025 performances. 
- Stats are all 2024+2025 unless explicitly noted. 
- "Starts" include individual Triple Crown Races. There are 23 gate drops per 17-rd. season.
Tier 1: Title Favorites

*slide table left to reveal more info.

#1: Chase Sexton

Through the last 2 Supercross seasons, Chase Sexton has been the 2nd fastest in the mains, fastest in the heats, 2nd fastest in qualifying and held the 2nd best position on the 1st lap, which resulted in the most total podiums (31).

Yes, he’s been criticized for making mistakes, but he’s only lost positions in 9 of 46 starts in the last 2 years. That’s the 3rd least after Jett Lawrence and Eli Tomac (for riders with greater than 20 starts).

We can’t predict how he’ll adapt to the Kawasaki KX450F, but we can say he’s the best rider entering the 2026 Supercross season!

#2: Cooper Webb

Cooper Webb finds ways to win that defy data models. In the last two seasons, he’s nabbed the most SX race wins (13 – 9 mains, 4 TC races) and the second most podiums (26).

What really stands out to me is he’s got the best 1st lap position (AVG 5.1) in the field. That’s right; he’s been better than either Jett or Hunter Lawrence. I think the only question entering 2026 is how well they test the all-new Yamaha YZ450F. A lot will be said of the OEM switches of Sexton, Tomac, Anderson and Prado, but an all-new model can be just as big of a change.

#3: Jett Lawrence

Yes, we left Jett Lawrence here even though we know he’s out for at least 3 months. Three things to note on why he’s #3 on this list: he’s fastest in the mains; he’s only lost positions in 10% (6 of 29) starts (lowest of any rider with 20 starts); however, he’s only been on the gate for 63% (29 of 46) of the scheduled starts in the last 2 years.

#4: Ken Roczen

The most controversial Tier 1 rider? Ken Roczen hasn’t finished either of the last two seasons due to injury, but facts don’t lie; he’s 3rd fastest overall, 3rd best on lap one, which resulted in the 4th most total podiums.

He’s got two hurdles to truly contend for a title. First he needs to win more often – he has 4 victories vs. the others (in tier 1) having a minimum of 12. Second (and most important), he needs to clean up the back half of the season. He’s lost positions in 16 races, 12 of which happened at round 8 or later!

Potential Winners (Tier 2)

This may be the most interesting Tier in the FPI. While Tier 1 represents 67% of the podiums over the last two years, this crew represents another 31%. That’s right, the top 10 riders in this ranking represent 98% (136/138) of the podium spots from the last 2 years! This Tier includes podium regulars, just a notch off Tier 1, but represents plenty of potential.

Excluding Eli Tomac, every one of these riders share very similar opportunities.

  • Speed slightly off Tier 1.
  • 1st lap position slightly worse than Tier 1.
  • And the big one: they lose positions in almost double the races (excluding Roczen).

Fun Fact

  • Aaron Plessinger turns 30 the morning after Anaheim 2!
#6 – Jason Anderson

Can Jason Anderson get his 2022 vibes back, where he won 7 races, led the most races, led the most laps, and had elite level speed?

#7 – Eli Tomac

Let’s first address all-time Eli Tomac not being in Tier 1. If you’re an ET3 fan, you’re mad. We get it. But this is not a prediction model nor a replacement for championship standings. Tomac has only raced 29 of 46 starts over the past two seasons (same as Jett Lawrence) and delivered 7 races wins (2 mains, 5 TC races). He’s simply not been as dominant the last 2 seasons.

He’s also only been 9th best on the 1st lap (8.1 position) and his speed has dropped as the race day continues – 3rd best in qualifying, 4th best in heats, and 5th best in the races.

Big potential – look no further than Justin Cooper and Hunter Lawrence.

#8 – Justin Cooper

Justin Cooper finished 3rd in the 2025 championship on the strength of 3 podiums in the last 3 rounds. His In-Season FPI for the last quarter of 2025 was Tier 1 strong (76.9 – 3rd best). He needs to bring that pace to A1. One area to watch is his heat races. He’s averaging 10th fastest. But he’s averaging 5th in qualifying and 8th in the mains.

You might say that doesn’t matter, but when you finish 4th in your heat you get 8th gate pick. Gate pick and specifically position is vital to 1st lap position and we can’t stress just how important 1st lap position is!

#9 – Hunter Lawrence

Hunter Lawrence has the starts nailed (best 1st Lap position in the 4 rounds he raced in 2025), but simply hasn’t had the same speed (9th average in qualifying, heat, and mains) in Supercross that he’s shown in Pro Motocross (1 of 3 riders to win an overall in 2025). The big positive for Hunter is a stable program entering 2026.

#10 – Malcolm Stewart

Malcolm Stewart is one of the very few riders with no changes to his program for 2026. Can he use the momentum from his Bercy win to deliver early season success and back up his 2025 Tampa win!?

Malcolm MUST improve his 13th ranked 1st lap position to be a title contender.

Top 10 Possible (Tier 3)

Tier 3 riders have averaged 9th-16th over the past two season and, more importantly, they each have at least 1 Top 10 finish.

#11 & #12 – Justin Barcia & Dylan Ferrandis

Justin Barcia and Dylan Ferrandis are the top of Tier 3 for good reason; each has stood on a podium in Supercross. But both will be piloting the brand new Ducati Desmo MX450. That adds uncertainty on what to expect in the early part of 2026.

  • Unfortunate for Justin Barcia, 2025 was the first time he didn’t podium since the 2017 season – 8 years ago. Bam Bam is on track to get his 300th start (SX+MX) at round 5 in Glendale.
#13 – Jorge Prado

Jorge Prado has to be the most polarizing rider in the field right now. A very difficult inaugural 2025 campaign here in the states has created more questions than answers. With 8 Supercross starts in the last 2 seasons, he’s averaged 9th on the 1st Lap and had 14th ranked speed in the main events.

Last Chance Crew (Tier 4)

Tier 4 represents 226 LCQ starts in 2024-25, whereas Tiers 1-3 represent just 30 LCQ starts over the same span. This crew regularly makes the Top 40 but tends to land in the LCQ often.

Christian Craig, Colt Nichols, and Benny Bloss are the outliers in this Tier, but the numbers don’t lie; they just missed the 25.0 FPI cut-off to be in Tier 3.

#27 – Kyle Chisholm

Nod to Kyle Chisholm who retired (we think!?) from full-time Supercross last season after 20 years! He finished with a career best 5th at Salt Lake City in 2010 and most impressively he finished with 184 Supercross starts, currently tied with Eli Tomac for 7th all-time.

Not Ranked (NR – Retired/Limited Starts)

We separate Not Ranked into two categories. The first are those we simply don’t have enough data (4 or less starts in 2024+2025) to rank their performances. The second are the riders below that have qualified Top 40 but haven’t yet made a main.

NR (#17) – Adam Cianciarulo

Props to Adam Cianciarulo. His final performances in 2024 kept him ranked 17th best even though he worked the Race Day Live booth the entirety of 2025.

Not Ranked (NR – Top 40 Qualifiers)

These riders qualified Top 40 at least once in the 2024-25 Supercross seasons, but have yet to make a main event. We track their performance but we don’t rank riders in Pre-season till they make at least 4 main events. There’s simply not enough data on them.

Glossary of Terms

Here’s a quick cheat sheet on definitions.

Speed Metrics
  • Main Fast Avg. – This is the average fastest lap rank in a main event.
  • Heat Fast Avg. – This is the average fastest lap rank in heat races.
  • Qualifying Avg. – This is the average qualifying rank.
Start Metrics
  • 1st Lap Pos. – This is the average position when crossing the finish line for the first time.
Results
  • Podiums – The count of top 3 finishes.
  • Starts – The number of times they started a race, either a main event or a triple crown race.
  • Race Minus – This is a race where a rider loses positions between the 1st lap and the finish. Typically represents when a rider has made a mistake. That said, it can also highlight riders where they are great starters but don’t have the speed to maintain position. In either case, it’s not optimal.